Murphy Oil Corp
Held by 1 superinvestor (MUR).
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
Valuation
Valuation · two methods
Earnings Power & Asset Floor
Two intrinsic-value methods and a tangible asset floor — deterministic, not price forecasts or recommendations.
Murphy Oil Corp (MUR): A conservative earnings-power estimate, $6–$36 / sh; today’s price sits below it (price $32 as of 2026-07-02).
Price is at or below the reproducible tangible asset base ($36 / sh) — a rarer, harder floor.
An observation from two valuation methods — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Price as of 2026-07-02 · yahoo · DGS10 4.5% @ 2026-07-01.
Method & numbers
Owner-earnings DCF $6.03 – $8.06 · Greenwald zero-growth $35.54 · zero-growth base $35.54 · reproduction $35.54
Moat Below asset base · terminal value 37% of present value · owner-earnings yield 2% vs 10Y 4.5%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$19.08 – $22.74 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex unavailable → degraded to the v1 simplification (maintenance capex = D&A, so the depreciation add-back nets to zero). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).
Buffett owner-earnings value$6.58 – $8.04 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Maintenance capex or D&A unavailable → degraded to normalized net income (= average net income over the years shown). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the same 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy (theoretically the cost of equity is higher; v2 simplification, v3 to refine).
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $5.12B = $35.54 / sh. Total book value (shareholders' equity ÷ diluted shares); intangibles not separated — goodwill/intangibles unavailable this period.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Growth value gated to zero — no moat / ROIIC ≤ WACC, so no growth value is credited.
Window FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 13% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 0% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 8.98%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-07-01). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
Ownership · 13F consensus
Who's buying it
Institutional ownership aggregated across funds — consensus strength and this quarter's moves. Describes actions, not advice.
1 superinvestor hold it · $819,555 combined
Largest holder Ray Dalio
Held by 1 superinvestor of Murphy Oil Corp (MUR); this quarter 1 opened (as of 2026-03-31).
13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days. Informational only — not investment advice.
Next · is it cheap
MUR's price is below its conservative value band.
Browse all undervalued stocks by margin of safetySuperinvestors Holding This Security
- Value$819,555Weight (prev→now)New · 0.0%
Ownership overview
Murphy Oil Corp (MUR) is held by 1 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $819,555 in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Ray Dalio, where it makes up 0.0% of the portfolio.
Over the latest quarter, 1 of the tracked filers opened a new position in MUR, 0 added to existing ones, 0 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-03-31. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-03-31 · filed 2026-05-15
Related
Stay Updated
Curated 13F moves and valuation insights, straight to your inbox.