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Nmi Holdings Inc

NMIHStrike zoneExpectations · modest

Held by 3 superinvestors.

Price$42.63
Margin of safety−42%
Holders3
Total value$29.1M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-12-31
Revenue growth
+8.5%
Net margin
55.1%
ROE
15.0%
FCF margin
58.4%
Revenue $433.3M → $706.4M · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Margin of safety

$74/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$43
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$41

Central IV

$74

Optimistic top

$92

Nmi Holdings Inc (NMIH): A conservative value band $41–$92 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $74. Today’s price sits below that band (price $43 as of 2026-07-20).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

Revenue growth 7% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 10 yr · discount 10.5% · Zero-growth downside $41

Price as of 2026-07-20 · yahoo · DGS10 4.5% @ 2026-07-17.

Method & numbers

Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.

Model cautions

  • Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).
  • Growth nearly matches the discount rate — the estimate is sensitive to assumptions.

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $45.22 – $91.70 · Greenwald zero-growth $50.51 · zero-growth base $50.51 · reproduction $32.75

Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 50% of present value · owner-earnings yield 11% vs 10Y 4.5%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)

Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.

Normalized NOPAT from operating margin — not applicable when operating income is not reported separately. Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge (+ cash − total debt) — not applied (lens not assessable).

Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

Buffett owner-earnings value$41.33 – $50.51 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 235% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied. Financial issuer (bank/insurer): net debt / owner earnings does not describe a deposit-funded balance sheet, so no leverage premium is applied here; leverage is instead handled by the reliability gate.

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $2.59B = $32.75 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.

Growth value not assessable — Operating income is not available across the window, so ROIIC / growth value cannot be computed.

Window FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 7% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.05%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-07-17). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about -3.0% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 10.3% a year.

Below what it has already done.

Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 1 more years to hold up.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

3 holders · $29.1M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited

This quarter1 added2 trimmed
Holders 3 → 3 · last 8q

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Nmi Holdings Inc (NMIH) is held by 3 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $29.1M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Donald Smith, where it makes up 0.3% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Ronald Muhlenkamp (3.6% of its book) and Jeremy Grantham (0.0% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in NMIH, 1 added to existing ones, 2 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-03-31. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

Also held by these investors

Investors holding Nmi Holdings Inc (NMIH) also commonly hold →

NMIH's price sits below its conservative value band. See the full strike-zone list

Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-03-31 · filed 2026-05-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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