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Nova Ltd

NVMIWithin bandExpectations · modest

Held by 2 superinvestors.

Price$368.26
Holders2
Total value$1.5M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-12-31
Revenue growth
+31.0%
Net margin
29.4%
ROE
19.7%
FCF margin
24.7%
Revenue $269.4M → $880.6M · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

In fair-value range

$342/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$368
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$64

Central IV

$342

Optimistic top

$442

Nova Ltd (NVMI): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $64–$442 / sh. Today’s price sits inside both (price $368 as of 2026-08-25).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

Revenue growth 20% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 20 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $64

Price as of 2026-08-25 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-21.

Method & numbers

Buybacks over the years shown roughly only offset stock-based-compensation dilution — read them as maintaining the share count, not a net return of capital.

Model cautions

  • The two methods’ midpoints differ materially — growth assumptions warrant review (over 20%).
  • Growth nearly matches the discount rate — the estimate is sensitive to assumptions.

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $96.79 – $441.87 · Greenwald $108.05 – $223.00 (neutral $172.19) · zero-growth base $77.87 · reproduction $46.20

Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 34% of present value · owner-earnings yield 2% vs 10Y 4.7%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$64.61 – $77.51 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 98% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).

Buffett owner-earnings value$63.71 – $77.87 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 98% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $1.18B + capitalized R&D $333.78M（FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021） = $46.20 / sh. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a wide moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 20 years (earnings intact, ROIC stable over history).

Growth value: if the moat holds for 20 yr at ROIIC ≈ 94%, $30.18–$145.13 / sh (neutral $94.31). Conservative, not a forecast.

Window FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 14% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 20% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.24%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-21). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 66%.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about 20.9% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 23.1% a year.

Below what it has already done.

Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 12 more years to hold up.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

2 holders · $1.5M combined · this quarter +2 opened / -0 exited

This quarter2 opened
Holders 1 → 2 · last 2q
  • Ray Dalio
    Value$807,895Weight (prev→now)New · 0.0%
  • Lee Ainslie
    Value$728,625Weight (prev→now)New · 0.0%

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Nova Ltd (NVMI) is held by 2 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $1.5M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Ray Dalio, where it makes up 0.0% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Lee Ainslie (0.0% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 2 of the tracked filers opened a new position in NVMI, 0 added to existing ones, 0 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

Also held by these investors

Investors holding Nova Ltd (NVMI) also commonly hold →

NVMI's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks

Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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