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Palo Alto Networks Inc

PANWAbove value

Held by 2 superinvestors.

Price$339.90
Holders2
Total value$41.0M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-07-31

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-04-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

Revenue growth
+14.9%
Net margin
12.3%
ROE
14.5%
FCF margin
37.6%
Revenue $3.41B → $9.22B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Above fair value

$14/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$340
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$22

Central IV

$14

Optimistic top

$22

Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW): A conservative value band $22 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $14. Today’s price sits above that band (price $340 as of 2026-08-25).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

  • Capex doubled in two years, so maintenance is hard to pin down — read the band conservatively.

Revenue growth 5% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 0 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $22

Price as of 2026-08-25 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-24.

Method & numbers

Buybacks over the years shown roughly only offset stock-based-compensation dilution — read them as maintaining the share count, not a net return of capital.

Model cautions

  • Capex doubled within two years: maintenance is floored then capped at D&A (OE may look optimistic); Greenwald growth value is closed — growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.
  • Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $9.49 – $17.65 · Greenwald zero-growth $21.68 · zero-growth base $21.68 · reproduction $21.68

Moat Below asset base · terminal value 49% of present value · owner-earnings yield 0% vs 10Y 4.7%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$9.61 – $11.09 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: TTM 2026-04-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 188% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).

Buffett owner-earnings value$9.12 – $11.15 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: TTM 2026-04-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 188% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $-1.52B + capitalized R&D $4.29B（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $21.68 / sh. Reproduction value = intangible-inclusive net reproduction (tangible net assets + acquired-intangible reset proxy + capitalized R&D), ÷ diluted shares; tangible net assets alone are negative for this asset-light franchise.

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Growth value gated to zero — capex doubled within two years (AI-hog); growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.

Window TTM 2026-04-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 0% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 5% · OE FY TTM 2026-04-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.20%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-24). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-04-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about over 30.0% (outside the usual range) a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 22.5% a year.

The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.

Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 29 more years to hold up.

Even when the value band is low-confidence: use this to see what the price assumes — not as a cheapness confirmation.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

2 holders · $41.0M combined · this quarter +2 opened / -1 exited

This quarter2 opened1 exited
Holders 1 → 2 · last 8q
Exited this quarter (1)
Ray Dalio

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW) is held by 2 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $41.0M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Stanley Druckenmiller, where it makes up 0.9% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Lee Ainslie (0.0% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 2 of the tracked filers opened a new position in PANW, 0 added to existing ones, 0 trimmed, and 1 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

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Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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