Packaging Corp Of America
PKGAbove valueHeld by 2 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
As of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +7.2%
- Net margin
- 8.6%
- ROE
- 16.8%
- FCF margin
- 8.1%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$69
Central IV
$70
Optimistic top
$97
Packaging Corp Of America (PKG): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $69–$97 / sh. Today’s price sits above both (price $249 as of 2026-10-22).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
- Recent earnings are below the multi-year average, so the band uses the lower run-rate.
Revenue growth 0% (history declining, capped at zero) · moat 10 yr · discount 11.7% · Zero-growth downside $69
Price as of 2026-10-22 · yahoo · DGS10 5.1% @ 2026-10-21.
Method & numbers
Model cautions
- The two methods’ midpoints differ materially — growth assumptions warrant review (over 20%).
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $63.45 – $77.70 · Greenwald $96.78 – $96.78 (neutral $96.78) · zero-growth base $96.78 · reproduction $30.11
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 33% of present value · owner-earnings yield 3% vs 10Y 5.1%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$71.98 – $96.78 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 90% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).
Buffett owner-earnings value$68.77 – $82.64 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9.9–11.9% band (9–11% base + 0.9pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 90% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 0.9pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 4.8 years of owner earnings, adding 0.9pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $2.68B = $30.11 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.
Growth value: if the moat holds for 10 yr at ROIIC ≈ -22%, $0.00–$0.00 / sh (neutral $0.00). Conservative, not a forecast.
Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 4.8 years of owner earnings → +0.9pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 9.9%–11.9%.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 0% (history declining → capped at 0) · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 10.55%–12.92% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +0.92pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-10-21). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 32%.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 25.3% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 4.9% a year.
The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.
Even when the value band is low-confidence: use this to see what the price assumes — not as a cheapness confirmation.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
2 holders · $17.3M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited
- Value$14.5MWeight (prev→now)0.4% → 0.4% ▲
- Value$2.8MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Packaging Corp Of America (PKG) is held by 2 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $17.3M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Harry Burn, where it makes up 0.4% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Jim Cullen (0.0% of its book).
In the quarter ended 2026-06-30, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in PKG, 1 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Packaging Corp Of America (PKG) also commonly hold →
- Bank Of America CorpBAC2 holders
- Citigroup IncC2 holders
- Qualcomm IncQCOM2 holders
- Medtronic PlcMDT2 holders
- United Parcel Service-Cl BUPS2 holders
- Genuine Parts CoGPC2 holders
See which stocks look cheap against a conservative value band. Browse all valued stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-13· Yahoo Finance as of 2026-10-22· SEC 10-K + 10-Q (XBRL) as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-07·FRED 10-year Treasury (DGS10) as of 2026-10-21
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
Stay Updated
One email after each quarter's 13F deadline: what the superinvestors did. Unsubscribe anytime.