Medtronic Plc
MDTAbove valueExpectations · demandingHeld by 8 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
As of 2026-04-24Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-07-31 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +8.4%
- Net margin
- 13.2%
- ROE
- 9.7%
- FCF margin
- 14.9%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$29
Central IV
$46
Optimistic top
$69
Medtronic Plc (MDT): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $29–$69 / sh. Today’s price sits above both (price $95 as of 2026-10-16).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 1% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 10 yr · discount 11.4% · Zero-growth downside $29
Price as of 2026-10-16 · yahoo · DGS10 5.1% @ 2026-10-15.
Method & numbers
Model cautions
- The two methods’ midpoints differ materially — growth assumptions warrant review (over 20%).
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $39.72 – $51.79 · Greenwald $56.64 – $69.25 (neutral $63.33) · zero-growth base $51.17 · reproduction $18.30
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 36% of present value · owner-earnings yield 5% vs 10Y 5.1%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$29.45 – $40.57 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-07-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 192% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$42.35 – $51.17 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9.6–11.6% band (9–11% base + 0.6pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-07-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 192% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 0.6pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 4.2 years of owner earnings, adding 0.6pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
Asset floor: Reproduction value = tangible net assets + acquired-intangible reset proxy, ÷ diluted shares; tangible net assets alone are negative for this asset-light franchise (no R&D history to capitalize).
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.
Growth value: if the moat holds for 10 yr at ROIIC ≈ 122%, $5.47–$18.08 / sh (neutral $12.16). Conservative, not a forecast.
Window TTM 2026-07-31, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 20% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 4.2 years of owner earnings → +0.6pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 9.6%–11.6%.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 1% · OE FY TTM 2026-07-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 10.20%–12.60% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +0.60pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-10-15). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 32%.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-07-31 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 14.8% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 3.3% a year.
The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
8 holders · $1.21B combined · this quarter +0 opened / -1 exited
- Value$616.1MWeight (prev→now)0.4% → 0.3% ▼
- Value$246.3MWeight (prev→now)0.9% → 0.7% ▼
- Value$202.8MWeight (prev→now)2.3% → 2.0% ▼
- Value$65.6MWeight (prev→now)2.4% → 2.0% ▼
- Value$37.7MWeight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.2% ▲
- Value$36.8MWeight (prev→now)2.8% → 3.0% ▲
- Value$5.6MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- Value$446,459Weight (prev→now)0.2% → 0.3% ▲
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Medtronic Plc (MDT) is held by 8 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $1.21B in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Dodge & Cox, where it makes up 0.3% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Richard Pzena (0.7% of its book), Jim Cullen (2.0% of its book) and Harry Burn (2.0% of its book).
In the quarter ended 2026-06-30, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in MDT, 5 added to existing ones, 2 trimmed, and 1 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. 1 investor has already filed for the quarter ended 2026-09-30. Their positions in the table reflect those newer filings, and the move counts on this page cover only 2026-06-30 filings. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Medtronic Plc (MDT) also commonly hold →
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MDT's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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