Super Micro Computer Inc
SMCIAbove valueHeld by 2 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-06-30Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-03-31 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +46.6%
- Net margin
- 4.8%
- ROE
- 16.6%
- FCF margin
- 7.0%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$13
Central IV
$23
Optimistic top
$28
Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI): A conservative value band $13–$28 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $23. Today’s price sits above that band (price $37 as of 2026-09-02).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
- Capex doubled in two years, so maintenance is hard to pin down — read the band conservatively.
Revenue growth 7% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 10 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $13
Price as of 2026-09-02 · yahoo · DGS10 4.8% @ 2026-09-03.
Method & numbers
Model cautions
- Capex doubled within two years: maintenance is floored then capped at D&A (OE may look optimistic); Greenwald growth value is closed — growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.
- Growth nearly matches the discount rate — the estimate is sensitive to assumptions.
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $14.22 – $27.81 · Greenwald zero-growth $23.12 · zero-growth base $23.12 · reproduction $12.69
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 50% of present value · owner-earnings yield 4% vs 10Y 4.8%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$19.26 – $23.12 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-03-31, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (ok) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).
Buffett owner-earnings value$12.99 – $15.88 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-03-31, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (ok); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $7.58B + capitalized R&D $1.21B（FY 2025, 2023, 2022, 2021） = $12.69 / sh. Total book value (equity ÷ diluted shares) + capitalized R&D; intangibles not separated — goodwill/intangibles unavailable this period.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. Dual reproduction test unavailable (intangibles not separated). A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.
Growth value gated to zero — capex doubled within two years (AI-hog); growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.
Window TTM 2026-03-31, FY 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 12% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 7% · OE FY TTM 2026-03-31, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020 · Discount band: 9.27%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-09-03). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-03-31 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 16.1% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 49.4% a year.
Below what it has already done.
Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 3 more years to hold up.
Even when the value band is low-confidence: use this to see what the price assumes — not as a cheapness confirmation.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
2 holders · $80.5M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -1 exited
- Value$78.1MWeight (prev→now)2.3% → 1.3% ▼
- Value$2.4MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) is held by 2 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $80.5M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Fred Martin, where it makes up 1.3% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Ray Dalio (0.0% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in SMCI, 1 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 1 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) also commonly hold →
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Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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