Super Micro Computer Inc
SMCI带内3 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-06-30- 营收增速
- +46.6%
- 净利率
- 4.8%
- ROE
- 16.6%
- FCF 利润率
- 7.0%
估值 · 价值带
处于合理价值区间
零增长底
$12
中枢 IV
$21
乐观上沿
$28
Super Micro Computer Inc（SMCI）：保守价值带 $12–$28 / 股（零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿），中枢约 $21。今日价格落在这条带内（价格 $24 截至 2026-07-20）。
中间是主读数；右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档，不是绝对上限。
- 资本开支两年翻倍，维持性投入难分清，价值带按保守口径读。
营收增 7%（历史增长与基本面上限的较小值，受护城河封顶） · 护城河 10 年 · 折现 10.5% · 零增长下行 $12
价格截至 2026-07-20 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-07-20.
方法与数字
模型警示
- 资本开支两年翻倍：维持性 CapEx 下限后按 D&A 封顶（OE 可能偏乐观）；Greenwald 增长价值已关闭 — 成长只留在所有者盈利 DCF。
- 增长率几乎等于贴现率 — 估计对假设高度敏感。
保守内在价值带（零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF）加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $13.11 – $26.36 · Greenwald 零增长 $27.89 · 零增长基准 $27.89 · 重置 $12.17
护城河 特许经营（护城河） · 终值占现值 50% · 所有者盈利收益率 6% 对 10Y 4.6%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$24.31 – $27.89 / 股
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
年份：2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020
v1 简化：Maintenance capex (ok) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).
Buffett owner-earnings value$11.98 – $14.64 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份：2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020
v1 简化：Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (ok); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
重置价值 = 有形净资产 $6.30B + 资本化研发 $1.35B（FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020） = $12.17 / 股. Total book value (equity ÷ diluted shares) + capitalized R&D; intangibles not separated — goodwill/intangibles unavailable this period.
护城河读数：Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. Dual reproduction test unavailable (intangibles not separated). A directional reading, not a verdict.
假设一般护城河 · 竞争优势期约 10 年。
增长价值被闸至零 — 资本开支两年翻倍（AI-hog），成长只留在所有者盈利 DCF，避免双重计入。
窗口 FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 11% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
所有者盈利 DCF：增长 g₁ 7% · OE FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020 · Discount band: 9.10%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-07-20). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
价格在赌什么
现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 9.1%；公司过去营收年增 49.4%。
低于它自己做到过的。
粗略地说，现价要它按历史营收增速再增长约 2 年，才刚好撑得起。
价值带信心不足时仍可对照：这里只说明市场在赌多快，不把它当成「确认便宜」。
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
3 位持有 · 合计 $119.6M · 本季 +1 新建 / -0 清仓
- 市值$113.6M权重（上季→本季）5.4% → 2.3% ▼
- 市值$4.4M权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- 市值$1.7M权重（上季→本季）新建 · 0.0%
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
Super Micro Computer Inc（SMCI）被 Compounder 追踪的 3 位超级投资者持有，合计申报市值 $119.6M。仓位最大的是 Fred Martin，占其组合 2.3%。
按市值，其他主要持有人包括 Jeremy Grantham（占其组合 0.0%） 和 Ray Dalio（占其组合 0.0%）。
最近一个季度，追踪范围内有 1 位新建 SMCI 仓位，1 位加仓，1 位减仓，0 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报，截至 2026-03-31 季度。来源：SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓，且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天，因此这是已披露的多头持有情况，并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 Super Micro Computer Inc（SMCI）的这些人还共同重仓 →
看哪些股票相对价值带便宜。 浏览全部可估值股票
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-03-31 · 2026-05-15 提交
仅供教育与信息参考，不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报，可能滞后最多 45 天。
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