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Sterling Infrastructure Inc

STRLWithin bandExpectations · demanding

Held by 2 superinvestors.

Price$486.39
Holders2
Total value$528.7M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-12-31

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

Revenue growth
+17.7%
Net margin
11.7%
ROE
26.2%
FCF margin
14.6%
Revenue $1.43B → $2.49B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

In fair-value range

$143/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$486
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$66

Central IV

$143

Optimistic top

$634

Sterling Infrastructure Inc (STRL): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $66–$634 / sh. Today’s price sits inside both (price $486 as of 2026-08-25).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

Revenue growth 9% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 20 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $66

Price as of 2026-08-25 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-24.

Method & numbers

Model cautions

  • Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).
  • The two methods’ midpoints differ materially — growth assumptions warrant review (over 20%).
  • Growth nearly matches the discount rate — the estimate is sensitive to assumptions.

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $75.65 – $177.42 · Greenwald $255.42 – $634.36 (neutral $460.77) · zero-growth base $114.88 · reproduction $2.60

Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 26% of present value · owner-earnings yield 1% vs 10Y 4.7%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$95.05 – $114.88 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).

Buffett owner-earnings value$65.91 – $80.56 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $81.07M = $2.60 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a wide moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 20 years (earnings intact, ROIC stable over history).

Growth value: if the moat holds for 20 yr at ROIIC ≈ 340%, $140.54–$519.48 / sh (neutral $345.89). Conservative, not a forecast.

Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (No effective-rate data available; fell back to the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 9% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.20%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-24). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 105%.

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about 23.8% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 11.4% a year.

The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

2 holders · $528.7M combined · this quarter +1 opened / -1 exited

This quarter1 opened1 trimmed1 exited
Holders 1 → 2 · last 5q
Exited this quarter (1)
Polen Capital

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Sterling Infrastructure Inc (STRL) is held by 2 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $528.7M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Stephen Mandel, where it makes up 3.1% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Ray Dalio (0.1% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 1 of the tracked filers opened a new position in STRL, 0 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 1 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

Also held by these investors

Investors holding Sterling Infrastructure Inc (STRL) also commonly hold →

STRL's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks

Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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