Te Connectivity Plc
TELWithin bandExpectations · demandingHeld by 9 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
As of 2025-09-26Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-26 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +8.9%
- Net margin
- 10.7%
- ROE
- 14.6%
- FCF margin
- 18.6%
Valuation · value band
In fair-value range
Zero-growth floor
$96
Central IV
$123
Optimistic top
$291
Te Connectivity Plc (TEL): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $96–$291 / sh. Today’s price sits inside both (price $213 as of 2026-10-16).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 3% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 20 yr · discount 10.8% · Zero-growth downside $96
Price as of 2026-10-16 · yahoo · DGS10 5.1% @ 2026-10-15.
Method & numbers
Model cautions
- The two methods’ midpoints differ materially — growth assumptions warrant review (over 20%).
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $94.33 – $142.59 · Greenwald $163.62 – $290.88 (neutral $231.36) · zero-growth base $120.11 · reproduction $17.72
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 18% of present value · owner-earnings yield 5% vs 10Y 5.1%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$95.55 – $120.11 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-06-26, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 153% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$96.57 – $118.03 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-06-26, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 153% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $3.76B + capitalized R&D $1.43B（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $17.72 / sh. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a wide moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 20 years (earnings intact, ROIC stable over history).
Growth value: if the moat holds for 20 yr at ROIIC ≈ 101%, $43.51–$170.77 / sh (neutral $111.25). Conservative, not a forecast.
Window TTM 2026-06-26, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 8% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 3% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-26, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.60%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-10-15). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 61%.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-26 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 9.6% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 5.6% a year.
The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
9 holders · $4.69B combined · this quarter +2 opened / -0 exited
- Value$3.42BWeight (prev→now)1.7% → 1.8% ▲
- Value$614.5MWeight (prev→now)0.8% → 0.8% ▲
- Value$312.7MWeight (prev→now)4.8% → 3.9% ▼
- Value$112.0MWeight (prev→now)0.4% → 0.3% ▼
- Value$90.2MWeight (prev→now)New · 2.8%
- Value$86.0MWeight (prev→now)0.3% → 0.4% ▲
- Value$33.6MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.1% ▲
- Value$19.0MWeight (prev→now)1.2% → 1.6% ▲
- Value$776,400Weight (prev→now)New · 0.0%
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Te Connectivity Plc (TEL) is held by 9 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $4.69B in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Dodge & Cox, where it makes up 1.8% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Bill Nygren (0.8% of its book), Steven Romick (3.9% of its book) and Richard Pzena (0.3% of its book).
In the quarter ended 2026-06-30, 2 of the tracked filers opened a new position in TEL, 4 added to existing ones, 2 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. 1 investor has already filed for the quarter ended 2026-09-30. Their positions in the table reflect those newer filings, and the move counts on this page cover only 2026-06-30 filings. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Te Connectivity Plc (TEL) also commonly hold →
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TEL's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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