Textron Inc
TXTWithin bandExpectations · demandingHeld by 2 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2026-01-03- Revenue growth
- +8.0%
- Net margin
- 6.2%
- ROE
- 11.7%
- FCF margin
- 6.3%
Valuation · value band
In fair-value range
Zero-growth floor
$51
Central IV
$79
Optimistic top
$98
Textron Inc (TXT): A conservative value band $51–$98 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $79. Today’s price sits inside that band (price $91 as of 2026-07-20).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 5% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 0 yr · discount 10.5% · Zero-growth downside $51
Price as of 2026-07-20 · yahoo · DGS10 4.5% @ 2026-07-17.
Method & numbers
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $51.97 – $97.69 · Greenwald zero-growth $61.74 · zero-growth base $61.74 · reproduction $50.80
Moat Commodity-like · terminal value 49% of present value · owner-earnings yield 6% vs 10Y 4.5%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
Normalized NOPAT from operating margin — not applicable when operating income is not reported separately. Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge (+ cash − total debt) — not applied (lens not assessable).
Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
Buffett owner-earnings value$50.52 – $61.74 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 82% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $7.54B + capitalized R&D $1.62B（FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021） = $50.80 / sh. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Growth value gated to zero — no moat or ROIIC ≤ WACC, so no growth value is credited.
Window FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 15% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 5% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.05%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-07-17). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 7.2% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 4.6% a year.
The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.
Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 35 more years to hold up.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
2 holders · $23.9M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited
- Value$23.6MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.1% ▲
- Value$359,434Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Textron Inc (TXT) is held by 2 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $23.9M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Jeremy Grantham, where it makes up 0.1% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Ray Dalio (0.0% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in TXT, 1 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-03-31. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Textron Inc (TXT) also commonly hold →
- Ss Spdr S&P 500 Etf Trust-UsSPY2 holders
- Microsoft CorpMSFT2 holders
- Alphabet Inc-Cl AGOOGL2 holders
- Amazon.Com IncAMZN2 holders
- Johnson & JohnsonJNJ2 holders
- Meta Platforms Inc-Class AMETA2 holders
TXT's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-03-31 · filed 2026-05-15
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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