United Airlines Holdings Inc
UALAbove valueExpectations · modestHeld by 5 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +3.5%
- Net margin
- 5.7%
- ROE
- 21.9%
- FCF margin
- 4.3%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$29
Central IV
$52
Optimistic top
$61
United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL): A conservative value band $29–$61 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $52. Today’s price sits above that band (price $117 as of 2026-08-25).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 3% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 0 yr · discount 13.1% · Zero-growth downside $29
Price as of 2026-08-25 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-08-25.
Method & numbers
Buybacks over the years shown roughly only offset stock-based-compensation dilution — read them as maintaining the share count, not a net return of capital.
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $39.82 – $60.65 · Greenwald zero-growth $46.82 · zero-growth base $46.82 · reproduction $29.16
Moat Commodity-like · terminal value 37% of present value · owner-earnings yield 5% vs 10Y 4.6%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$27.47 – $43.19 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 94% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$39.89 – $46.82 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 11.5–13.5% band (9–11% base + 2.5pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 94% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 2.5pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 8.0 years of owner earnings, adding 2.5pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $9.53B = $29.16 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Growth value gated to zero — no moat or ROIIC ≤ WACC, so no growth value is credited.
Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 8.0 years of owner earnings → +2.5pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 11.5%–13.5%.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 3% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 11.65%–14.51% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +2.51pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-25). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 18.9% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 30.9% a year.
Below what it has already done.
Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 5 more years to hold up.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
5 holders · $271.3M combined · this quarter +1 opened / -0 exited
- Value$108.1MWeight (prev→now)0.8% → 2.5% ▲
- Value$99.5MWeight (prev→now)2.5% → 3.3% ▲
- Value$33.3MWeight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.1% ▲
- Value$29.7MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.1% ▲
- Value$717,619Weight (prev→now)New · 0.0%
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL) is held by 5 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $271.3M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Stanley Druckenmiller, where it makes up 2.5% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Samantha McLemore (3.3% of its book), Jeremy Grantham (0.1% of its book) and Ray Dalio (0.1% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 1 of the tracked filers opened a new position in UAL, 2 added to existing ones, 2 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL) also commonly hold →
- Alphabet Inc-Cl AGOOGL5 holders
- Amazon.Com IncAMZN5 holders
- Ss Spdr S&P 500 Etf Trust-UsSPY4 holders
- Lam Research CorpLRCX4 holders
- Nvidia CorpNVDA4 holders
- Meta Platforms Inc-Class AMETA4 holders
UAL's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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