United Airlines Holdings Inc
UAL高于价值预期 · 苛刻4 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-12-31- 营收增速
- +3.5%
- 净利率
- 5.7%
- ROE
- 21.9%
- FCF 利润率
- 4.3%
估值 · 价值带
高于合理价值
零增长底
$25
中枢 IV
$6
乐观上沿
$25
United Airlines Holdings Inc(UAL):保守价值带 $25 / 股(零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿),中枢约 $6。今日价格高于这条带(价格 $117 截至 2026-07-22)。
中间是主读数;右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档,不是绝对上限。
营收增 2%(历史增长与基本面上限的较小值,受护城河封顶) · 护城河 0 年 · 折现 14.6% · 零增长下行 $25
价格截至 2026-07-22 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-07-21.
方法与数字
模型警示
- 所有者盈利收益率与 10 年期美债大幅背离(超过 300 个基点)。
保守内在价值带(零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF)加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $5.39 – $7.22 · Greenwald 零增长 $24.66 · 零增长基准 $24.66 · 重置 $24.66
护城河 低于资产基础 · 终值占现值 30% · 所有者盈利收益率 1% 对 10Y 4.6%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$-29.80 – $-23.76 / 股
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
年份:2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化:Maintenance capex (ok) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$5.52 – $6.37 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 13.0–15.0% band (9–11% base + 4.0pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份:2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化:Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (ok); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 4.0pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 68.8 years of owner earnings, adding 4.0pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
重置价值 = 有形净资产 $8.10B = $24.66 / 股. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).
护城河读数:Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
增长价值被闸至零 — 无护城河或 ROIIC ≤ WACC,故不计入增长价值。
窗口 FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
基线 9%–11%,净债务约 68.8 年所有者盈利 → 加 4.0 个百分点风险溢价 → 实际 13.0%–15.0%。
所有者盈利 DCF:增长 g₁ 2% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 13.13%–16.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +4.00pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-07-21). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
价格在赌什么
现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 高于 30.0%(已超出常规区间);公司过去营收年增 30.9%。
市场要它明显快过自己一贯的水平。
粗略地说,现价要它按历史营收增速再增长约 18 年,才刚好撑得起。
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
4 位持有 · 合计 $122.9M · 本季 +1 新建 / -2 清仓
- 市值$67.4M权重(上季→本季)2.8% → 2.5% ▼
- 市值$24.2M权重(上季→本季)0.9% → 0.8% ▼
- 市值$23.9M权重(上季→本季)0.1% → 0.1% ▲
- 市值$7.4M权重(上季→本季)新建 · 0.0%
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
United Airlines Holdings Inc(UAL)被 Compounder 追踪的 4 位超级投资者持有,合计申报市值 $122.9M。仓位最大的是 Samantha McLemore,占其组合 2.5%。
按市值,其他主要持有人包括 Stanley Druckenmiller(占其组合 0.8%),Jeremy Grantham(占其组合 0.1%) 和 Ray Dalio(占其组合 0.0%)。
最近一个季度,追踪范围内有 1 位新建 UAL 仓位,2 位加仓,1 位减仓,2 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报,截至 2026-03-31 季度。来源:SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓,且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天,因此这是已披露的多头持有情况,并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 United Airlines Holdings Inc(UAL)的这些人还共同重仓 →
UAL 现价不低于保守价值带。 看当前击球区股票
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-03-31 · 2026-05-15 提交
仅供教育与信息参考,不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报,可能滞后最多 45 天。
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