Union Pacific Corp
UNPAbove valueExpectations · demandingHeld by 12 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +1.1%
- Net margin
- 29.1%
- ROE
- 38.7%
- FCF margin
- 22.4%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$88
Central IV
$148
Optimistic top
$177
Union Pacific Corp (UNP): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $88–$177 / sh. Today’s price sits above both (price $311 as of 2026-08-26).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 2% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 10 yr · discount 10.9% · Zero-growth downside $88
Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.
Method & numbers
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $110.13 – $176.53 · Greenwald $146.64 – $165.72 (neutral $155.68) · zero-growth base $137.25 · reproduction $34.80
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 43% of present value · owner-earnings yield 4% vs 10Y 4.7%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$88.39 – $118.30 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 86% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).
Buffett owner-earnings value$112.97 – $137.25 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9.3–11.3% band (9–11% base + 0.3pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 86% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 0.3pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 3.6 years of owner earnings, adding 0.3pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $20.67B = $34.80 / sh. Total book value (shareholders' equity ÷ diluted shares); intangibles not separated — goodwill/intangibles unavailable this period.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. Dual reproduction test unavailable (intangibles not separated). A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.
Growth value: if the moat holds for 10 yr at ROIIC ≈ 53%, $9.39–$28.47 / sh (neutral $18.43). Conservative, not a forecast.
Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 3.6 years of owner earnings → +0.3pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 9.3%–11.3%.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 2% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.47%–12.31% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +0.31pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 5%.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 16.4% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 4.1% a year.
The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
12 holders · $2.34B combined · this quarter +1 opened / -0 exited
- Value$1.05BWeight (prev→now)1.2% → 1.4% ▲
- Value$556.9MWeight (prev→now)New · 1.6%
- Value$322.4MWeight (prev→now)7.3% → 6.0% ▼
- Value$139.9MWeight (prev→now)0.6% → 0.6% ▼
- Value$95.2MWeight (prev→now)1.2% → 2.0% ▲
- Value$71.0MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- Value$43.8MWeight (prev→now)0.3% → 0.3% ▲
- Value$41.4MWeight (prev→now)0.4% → 0.4% ▲
- Value$10.1MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
- Value$7.0MWeight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.1% ▼
Show all 12 holders ▸Collapse ▾
- Value$5.2MWeight (prev→now)0.4% → 0.4% ▲
- Value$552,704Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Union Pacific Corp (UNP) is held by 12 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $2.34B in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Bill Nygren, where it makes up 1.4% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Andreas Halvorsen (1.6% of its book), Seth Klarman (6.0% of its book) and Ray Dalio (0.6% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 1 of the tracked filers opened a new position in UNP, 4 added to existing ones, 5 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Union Pacific Corp (UNP) also commonly hold →
- Amazon.Com IncAMZN9 holders
- Alphabet Inc-Cl AGOOGL9 holders
- Jpmorgan Chase & CoJPM9 holders
- Microsoft CorpMSFT8 holders
- Visa Inc-Class A SharesV8 holders
- Comcast Corp-Class ACMCSA8 holders
UNP's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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