Bristow Group Inc
VTOLAbove valueHeld by 2 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
As of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +5.3%
- Net margin
- 8.7%
- ROE
- 12.2%
- FCF margin
- 3.8%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$36
Central IV
$7
Optimistic top
$36
Bristow Group Inc (VTOL): A conservative value band $36 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $7. Today’s price sits above that band (price $38 as of 2026-10-22).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
- Capex doubled in two years, so maintenance is hard to pin down — read the band conservatively.
Revenue growth 5% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 0 yr · discount 14.8% · Zero-growth downside $36
Price as of 2026-10-22 · yahoo · DGS10 5.1% @ 2026-10-21.
Method & numbers
Buybacks over the years shown roughly only offset stock-based-compensation dilution — read them as maintaining the share count, not a net return of capital.
Model cautions
- Capex doubled within two years: maintenance is floored then capped at D&A (OE may look optimistic); Greenwald growth value is closed — growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.
- Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $5.67 – $8.31 · Greenwald zero-growth $35.87 · zero-growth base $35.87 · reproduction $35.87
Moat Below asset base · terminal value 33% of present value · owner-earnings yield 2% vs 10Y 5.1%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$6.86 – $11.59 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2019
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 72% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$5.39 – $6.22 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 13.0–15.0% band (9–11% base + 4.0pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2019
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 72% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 4.0pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 17.9 years of owner earnings, adding 4.0pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $1.08B = $35.87 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Growth value gated to zero — capex doubled within two years (AI-hog); growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.
Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2019 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 4 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 17.9 years of owner earnings → +4.0pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 13.0%–15.0%.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 5% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2019 · Discount band: 13.63%–16.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +4.00pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-10-21). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about over 30.0% (outside the usual range) a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 37.7% a year.
The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.
Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 8 more years to hold up.
Even when the value band is low-confidence: use this to see what the price assumes — not as a cheapness confirmation.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
2 holders · $6.9M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -1 exited
- Value$4.5MWeight (prev→now)1.0% → 0.9% ▼
- Value$2.4MWeight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.0% ▼
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Bristow Group Inc (VTOL) is held by 2 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $6.9M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Arnold Van Den Berg, where it makes up 0.9% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Donald Smith (0.0% of its book).
In the quarter ended 2026-06-30, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in VTOL, 1 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 1 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Bristow Group Inc (VTOL) also commonly hold →
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Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14· Yahoo Finance as of 2026-10-22· SEC 10-K + 10-Q (XBRL) as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-05·FRED 10-year Treasury (DGS10) as of 2026-10-21
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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