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Woodward Inc

WWDAbove value

Held by 3 superinvestors.

Price$345.91
Holders3
Total value$65.6M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-09-30

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

Revenue growth
+7.3%
Net margin
12.4%
ROE
17.2%
FCF margin
9.5%
Revenue $2.50B → $3.57B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Above fair value

$103/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$346
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$58

Central IV

$103

Optimistic top

$127

Woodward Inc (WWD): A conservative value band $58–$127 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $103. Today’s price sits above that band (price $346 as of 2026-08-26).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

  • Capex doubled in two years, so maintenance is hard to pin down — read the band conservatively.

Revenue growth 7% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 10 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $58

Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-08-25.

Method & numbers

Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.

Model cautions

  • Capex doubled within two years: maintenance is floored then capped at D&A (OE may look optimistic); Greenwald growth value is closed — growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.
  • Growth nearly matches the discount rate — the estimate is sensitive to assumptions.

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $63.77 – $127.40 · Greenwald zero-growth $71.23 · zero-growth base $71.23 · reproduction $24.03

Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 50% of present value · owner-earnings yield 2% vs 10Y 4.6%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)

Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.

Normalized NOPAT from operating margin — not applicable when operating income is not reported separately. Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge (+ cash − total debt) — not applied (lens not assessable).

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

Buffett owner-earnings value$58.28 – $71.23 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (ok); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $1.13B + capitalized R&D $333.43M（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $24.03 / sh. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.

Growth value gated to zero — capex doubled within two years (AI-hog); growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.

Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 17% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 7% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.14%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-25). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about over 30.0% (outside the usual range) a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 9.5% a year.

The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.

Even when the value band is low-confidence: use this to see what the price assumes — not as a cheapness confirmation.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

3 holders · $65.6M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -1 exited

This quarter3 trimmed1 exited
Holders 3 → 3 · last 8q
Exited this quarter (1)
Jeremy Grantham

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Woodward Inc (WWD) is held by 3 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $65.6M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Stanley Druckenmiller, where it makes up 0.7% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Ray Dalio (0.1% of its book) and Ravenel Boykin Curry (0.0% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in WWD, 0 added to existing ones, 3 trimmed, and 1 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

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Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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