Alcoa Corp
AAAbove valueExpectations · demandingHeld by 4 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +7.9%
- Net margin
- 9.0%
- ROE
- 18.9%
- FCF margin
- 4.4%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$28
Central IV
$9
Optimistic top
$28
Alcoa Corp (AA): A conservative value band $28 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $9. Today’s price sits above that band (price $51 as of 2026-08-25).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 4% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 0 yr · discount 11.4% · Zero-growth downside $28
Price as of 2026-08-25 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-08-25.
Method & numbers
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
Model cautions
- Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $6.10 – $10.51 · Greenwald zero-growth $27.87 · zero-growth base $27.87 · reproduction $27.87
Moat Below asset base · terminal value 45% of present value · owner-earnings yield 1% vs 10Y 4.6%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
Normalized NOPAT from operating margin — not applicable when operating income is not reported separately. Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge (+ cash − total debt) — not applied (lens not assessable).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
Buffett owner-earnings value$5.98 – $7.20 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9.8–11.8% band (9–11% base + 0.8pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (ok); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 0.8pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 4.6 years of owner earnings, adding 0.8pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $7.34B + capitalized R&D $77.20M（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $27.87 / sh. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Growth value gated to zero — no moat or ROIIC ≤ WACC, so no growth value is credited.
Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 4.6 years of owner earnings → +0.8pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 9.8%–11.8%.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 4% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.96%–12.82% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +0.82pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-25). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about over 30.0% (outside the usual range) a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 4.0% a year.
The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
4 holders · $658.5M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -1 exited
- Value$619.4MWeight (prev→now)3.1% → 1.9% ▼
- Value$25.9MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.1% ▲
- Value$9.7MWeight (prev→now)3.4% → 0.2% ▼
- Value$3.5MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Alcoa Corp (AA) is held by 4 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $658.5M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Ravenel Boykin Curry, where it makes up 1.9% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Jeremy Grantham (0.1% of its book), Stanley Druckenmiller (0.2% of its book) and Ray Dalio (0.0% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in AA, 2 added to existing ones, 2 trimmed, and 1 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Alcoa Corp (AA) also commonly hold →
- Amazon.Com IncAMZN4 holders
- Alphabet Inc-Cl AGOOGL4 holders
- Taiwan Semiconductor-Sp AdrTSM4 holders
- Microsoft CorpMSFT3 holders
- Ss Spdr S&P 500 Etf Trust-UsSPY3 holders
- Unitedhealth Group IncUNH3 holders
AA's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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