Full Truck Alliance -Spn Adr
Held by 1 superinvestor (YMM).
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
Valuation
Valuation · two methods
Earnings Power & Asset Floor
Two intrinsic-value methods and a tangible asset floor — deterministic, not price forecasts or recommendations.
Full Truck Alliance -Spn Adr (YMM): A conservative earnings-power estimate, $0–$0 / sh; today’s price sits above it (price $8 as of 2026-07-02).
Model cautions
- Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).
An observation from two valuation methods — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Price as of 2026-07-02 · yahoo · DGS10 4.5% @ 2026-07-01.
Method & numbers
Owner-earnings DCF $0.07 – $0.09 · Greenwald zero-growth $0.26 · zero-growth base $0.26 · reproduction $0.26
Moat Below asset base · terminal value 37% of present value · owner-earnings yield 0% vs 10Y 4.5%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)
Normalized operating earnings net of maintenance capex are non-positive over the years shown; earnings power cannot be capitalized.
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 60% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$0.07 – $0.09 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the same 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy (theoretically the cost of equity is higher; v2 simplification, v3 to refine).
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $5.11B + capitalized R&D $377.41M（FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021） = $0.26 / sh. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Growth value gated to zero — no moat / ROIIC ≤ WACC, so no growth value is credited.
Window FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 9% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 0% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 8.98%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-07-01). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
Ownership · 13F consensus
Who's buying it
Institutional ownership aggregated across funds — consensus strength and this quarter's moves. Describes actions, not advice.
1 superinvestor hold it · $238.7M combined
Largest holder Christopher Davis
Held by 1 superinvestor of Full Truck Alliance -Spn Adr (YMM); this quarter 1 added, 1 exited (as of 2026-03-31).
13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days. Informational only — not investment advice.
Next · is it cheap
YMM's price is not below its conservative value band.
See which stocks are in the strike zone right nowSuperinvestors Holding This Security
- Value$238.7MWeight (prev→now)0.8% → 1.1% ▲
Ownership overview
Full Truck Alliance -Spn Adr (YMM) is held by 1 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $238.7M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Christopher Davis, where it makes up 1.1% of the portfolio.
Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in YMM, 1 added to existing ones, 0 trimmed, and 1 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-03-31. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
Holders over time
Superinvestors holding this security over the last 6 quarters: 1 → 1.
Early quarters may understate holder counts due to data backfill — read the slope with care.
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-03-31 · filed 2026-05-15
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