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Aercap Holdings Nv

AERBelow valueExpectations · modest

Held by 5 superinvestors.

Price$151.78
Margin of safety−5%
Holders5
Total value$2.40B

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-12-31
Revenue growth
+6.5%
Net margin
44.0%
ROE
20.5%
FCF margin
—
Revenue $9.7M → $8.52B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Margin of safety

$160/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$152
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$113

Central IV

$160

Optimistic top

$183

Aercap Holdings Nv (AER): A conservative value band $113–$183 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $160. Today’s price sits below that band (price $152 as of 2026-07-21).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

Revenue growth 5% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 0 yr · discount 14.6% · Zero-growth downside $113

Price as of 2026-07-21 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-07-20.

Method & numbers

Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.

Model cautions

  • Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $118.86 – $183.35 · Greenwald zero-growth $130.28 · zero-growth base $130.28 · reproduction $104.04

Moat Commodity-like · terminal value 34% of present value · owner-earnings yield 11% vs 10Y 4.6%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)

Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.

Normalized NOPAT from operating margin — not applicable when operating income is not reported separately. Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge (+ cash − total debt) — not applied (lens not assessable).

Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

Buffett owner-earnings value$112.91 – $130.28 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 13.0–15.0% band (9–11% base + 4.0pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex or D&A unavailable → degraded to normalized net income (= average net income over the years shown). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 4.0pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 14.1 years of owner earnings, adding 4.0pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $18.32B = $104.04 / sh. Total book value (shareholders' equity ÷ diluted shares); intangibles not separated — goodwill/intangibles unavailable this period.

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. Dual reproduction test unavailable (intangibles not separated). A directional reading, not a verdict.

Growth value gated to zero — no moat or ROIIC ≤ WACC, so no growth value is credited.

Window FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 13% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 14.1 years of owner earnings → +4.0pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 13.0%–15.0%.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 5% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 13.10%–16.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +4.00pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-07-20). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about 3.9% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 350.2% a year.

Below what it has already done.

Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 1 more years to hold up.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

5 holders · $2.40B combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited

This quarter2 added3 trimmed
Holders 2 → 5 · last 8q

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Aercap Holdings Nv (AER) is held by 5 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $2.40B in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Ravenel Boykin Curry, where it makes up 3.4% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Bill Nygren (1.1% of its book), Donald Smith (7.8% of its book) and Pat Dorsey (12.3% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in AER, 2 added to existing ones, 3 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-03-31. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

Also held by these investors

Investors holding Aercap Holdings Nv (AER) also commonly hold →

AER's price is below its conservative value band. Browse all undervalued stocks by margin of safety

Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-03-31 · filed 2026-05-15

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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