Grail Inc
GRAL1 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-12-31- 营收增速
- +17.2%
- 净利率
- -277.5%
- ROE
- -15.8%
- FCF 利润率
- -203.8%
估值 · 价值带
估值
缺少可用市场价格,因此不把现价放进价值带位置条。
方法与数字
保守内在价值带(零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF)加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
· 重置 $41.25
护城河 低于资产基础.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)
Normalized operating earnings net of maintenance capex are non-positive over the years shown; earnings power cannot be capitalized.
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
年份:2025, 2024, 2023, 2022
v1 简化:Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 111% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value
Normalized owner earnings are non-positive over the years shown; earnings power cannot be capitalized.
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份:2025, 2024, 2023, 2022
v1 简化:Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 111% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied. Net debt or owner earnings is unavailable, so no adjustment is made.
重置价值 = 有形净资产 $727.31M + 资本化研发 $788.78M(FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022) = $41.25 / 股. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.
护城河读数:Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
增长价值被闸至零 — 无护城河或 ROIIC ≤ WACC,故不计入增长价值。
窗口 FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 8% (Average effective tax rate over 4 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
1 位持有 · 合计 $53.5M · 本季 +0 新建 / -1 清仓
- 市值$53.5M权重(上季→本季)47.7% → 36.3% ▼
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
Grail Inc(GRAL)被 Compounder 追踪的 1 位超级投资者持有,合计申报市值 $53.5M。仓位最大的是 Paul Isaac,占其组合 36.3%。
最近一个季度,追踪范围内有 0 位新建 GRAL 仓位,0 位加仓,1 位减仓,1 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报,截至 2026-03-31 季度。来源:SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓,且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天,因此这是已披露的多头持有情况,并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 Grail Inc(GRAL)的这些人还共同重仓 →
看哪些股票相对价值带便宜。 浏览全部可估值股票
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-03-31 · 2026-05-14 提交
仅供教育与信息参考,不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报,可能滞后最多 45 天。
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