Quad Graphics Inc
QUAD高于价值1 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-12-31估值口径：截至 2026-03-31 的滚动十二个月（最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q）。
- 营收增速
- -9.4%
- 净利率
- 1.1%
- ROE
- -45.4%
- FCF 利润率
- 2.1%
估值 · 价值带
高于合理价值
零增长底
$3
中枢 IV
$3
乐观上沿
$3
Quad Graphics Inc（QUAD）：保守价值带 $3 / 股（零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿），中枢约 $3。今日价格高于这条带（价格 $10 截至 2026-08-26）。
中间是主读数；右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档，不是绝对上限。
- 最新盈利低于多年均值，价值带按更低的运行率计。
营收增 0%（历史下滑，封顶为零） · 护城河 0 年 · 折现 14.6% · 零增长下行 $3
价格截至 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-08-25.
方法与数字
所示年度的回购大体只抵消了股权激励（SBC）造成的稀释 — 应视为维持股本、而非净额回馈股东。
保守内在价值带（零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF）加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $2.57 – $3.13 · Greenwald 零增长 $3.16 · 零增长基准 $3.16 · 重置 $0.27
护城河 商品化 · 终值占现值 26% · 所有者盈利收益率 4% 对 10Y 4.6%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$-0.31 – $1.53 / 股
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
年份：TTM 2026-03-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 89% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$2.74 – $3.16 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 13.0–15.0% band (9–11% base + 4.0pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份：TTM 2026-03-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 89% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 4.0pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 20.9 years of owner earnings, adding 4.0pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
重置价值 = 有形净资产 $6.50M + 资本化研发 $6.72M（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $0.27 / 股. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.
护城河读数：Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
增长价值被闸至零 — 无护城河或 ROIIC ≤ WACC，故不计入增长价值。
窗口 TTM 2026-03-31, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 8% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
基线 9%–11%，净债务约 20.9 年所有者盈利 → 加 4.0 个百分点风险溢价 → 实际 13.0%–15.0%。
所有者盈利 DCF：增长 g₁ 0%（历史下滑 → 封顶为 0） · OE FY TTM 2026-03-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 13.14%–16.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +4.00pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-25). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
估值口径：截至 2026-03-31 的滚动十二个月（最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q）。
内在价值怎么读SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
1 位持有 · 合计 $21.4M · 本季 +0 新建 / -0 清仓
- 市值$21.4M权重（上季→本季）4.6% → 5.1% ▲
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
Quad Graphics Inc（QUAD）被 Compounder 追踪的 1 位超级投资者持有，合计申报市值 $21.4M。仓位最大的是 Bill Miller，占其组合 5.1%。
最近一个季度，追踪范围内有 0 位新建 QUAD 仓位，0 位加仓，1 位减仓，0 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报，截至 2026-06-30 季度。来源：SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓，且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天，因此这是已披露的多头持有情况，并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 Quad Graphics Inc（QUAD）的这些人还共同重仓 →
看哪些股票相对价值带便宜。 浏览全部可估值股票
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-06-30 · 2026-08-14 提交
仅供教育与信息参考，不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报，可能滞后最多 45 天。
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