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Auction Risk
FreshDemand strength and tail risk in Treasury auctions — assessing the market's capacity to absorb new supply
Module/Supply
Auction RiskHigh
Upcoming 7-day Supply$170 billion
Upcoming 14-day Supply$170 billion
Upcoming Supply LabelModerate
What To Watch
- Whether 7/14-day issuance is concentrated; large supply becomes market pressure only when demand, trading, or dealer absorption weakens.
- Whether bid-to-cover, indirect/direct/dealer shares deteriorate and line up with post-auction performance.
- Without a when-issued yield, tail/stop-through should be treated as low-confidence or unavailable.
What Can Mislead
- One weak auction may not define the trend; pair it with consecutive auctions and dealer inventory.
- A high bid-to-cover does not guarantee strong price-sensitive demand; downgrade confidence if tail or dealer takedown looks weak.
Data Lineage
Sourced from Treasury auction calendar/results, contextualized with dealer, fails, and transaction data.
Sources: Treasury.gov Auctions / New York Fed dealer context
Data Tables
Upcoming Auctions
| Term | Issue Date | Auction Date | Security Type | Offering Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8-Week | 2026-07-07 | 2026-07-02 | Bill | $85 billion |
| 4-Week | 2026-07-07 | 2026-07-02 | Bill | $85 billion |
Completed Recent Auction Results
| Term | Auction Date | Bid-To-Cover | Security Type | Demand Summary | Offering Amount | Primary Dealer Share | Indirect Bidder Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8-Week | 2026-07-02 | Unavailable | Bill | BTC: Unavailable | Dealer: Low | Indirect: Weak | $85 billion | NaN% | NaN% |
| 4-Week | 2026-07-02 | Unavailable | Bill | BTC: Unavailable | Dealer: Low | Indirect: Weak | $85 billion | NaN% | NaN% |
| 17-Week | 2026-07-01 | 2.66 | Bill | BTC: Normal | Dealer: Moderate | Indirect: Normal | $72 billion | 36.0% | 52.0% |
| 6-Week | 2026-06-30 | 2.71 | Bill | BTC: Strong | Dealer: Low | Indirect: Normal | $80 billion | 23.4% | 62.1% |
| 26-Week | 2026-06-29 | 2.58 | Bill | BTC: Normal | Dealer: Moderate | Indirect: Normal | $79 billion | 33.1% | 51.3% |
| 13-Week | 2026-06-29 | 2.32 | Bill | BTC: Normal | Dealer: High | Indirect: Weak | $92 billion | 47.0% | 37.0% |
| 7-Year | 2026-06-25 | 2.50 | Note | BTC: Normal | Dealer: Low | Indirect: Weak | $44 billion | 11.1% | 50.0% |
| 8-Week | 2026-06-25 | 2.79 | Bill | BTC: Strong | Dealer: Moderate | Indirect: Normal | $75 billion | 25.1% | 62.6% |
Show all (4 more rows)
| Term | Auction Date | Bid-To-Cover | Security Type | Demand Summary | Offering Amount | Primary Dealer Share | Indirect Bidder Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8-Week | 2026-07-02 | Unavailable | Bill | BTC: Unavailable | Dealer: Low | Indirect: Weak | $85 billion | NaN% | NaN% |
| 4-Week | 2026-07-02 | Unavailable | Bill | BTC: Unavailable | Dealer: Low | Indirect: Weak | $85 billion | NaN% | NaN% |
| 17-Week | 2026-07-01 | 2.66 | Bill | BTC: Normal | Dealer: Moderate | Indirect: Normal | $72 billion | 36.0% | 52.0% |
| 6-Week | 2026-06-30 | 2.71 | Bill | BTC: Strong | Dealer: Low | Indirect: Normal | $80 billion | 23.4% | 62.1% |
| 26-Week | 2026-06-29 | 2.58 | Bill | BTC: Normal | Dealer: Moderate | Indirect: Normal | $79 billion | 33.1% | 51.3% |
| 13-Week | 2026-06-29 | 2.32 | Bill | BTC: Normal | Dealer: High | Indirect: Weak | $92 billion | 47.0% | 37.0% |
| 7-Year | 2026-06-25 | 2.50 | Note | BTC: Normal | Dealer: Low | Indirect: Weak | $44 billion | 11.1% | 50.0% |
| 8-Week | 2026-06-25 | 2.79 | Bill | BTC: Strong | Dealer: Moderate | Indirect: Normal | $75 billion | 25.1% | 62.6% |
| 4-Week | 2026-06-25 | 2.74 | Bill | BTC: Strong | Dealer: Moderate | Indirect: Normal | $70 billion | 25.8% | 53.7% |
| 1-Year 10-Month | 2026-06-24 | 2.99 | Note | BTC: Strong | Dealer: Moderate | Indirect: Strong | $28 billion | 33.3% | 66.6% |
| 5-Year | 2026-06-24 | 2.35 | Note | BTC: Normal | Dealer: Low | Indirect: Normal | $70 billion | 11.2% | 53.5% |
| 17-Week | 2026-06-24 | 2.55 | Bill | BTC: Normal | Dealer: Moderate | Indirect: Normal | $69 billion | 38.3% | 50.3% |
Pending / Results Not Yet Available
No data available
Sources·Treasury.gov Auctions as of 2026-07-02·New York Fed dealer context as of 2026-07-02