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Jefferies Financial Group In

JEFAbove value

Held by 4 superinvestors.

Price$56.74
Holders4
Total value$132.3M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-11-30
Revenue growth
+14.2%
Net margin
12.3%
ROE
6.4%
FCF margin
-30.7%
Revenue $3.92B → $5.55B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Above fair value

$25/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$57
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$38

Central IV

$25

Optimistic top

$38

Jefferies Financial Group In (JEF): A conservative value band $38 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $25. Today’s price sits above that band (price $57 as of 2026-07-21).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

  • Capex doubled in two years, so maintenance is hard to pin down — read the band conservatively.
  • Recent earnings are below the multi-year average, so the band uses the lower run-rate.

Revenue growth 0% (history declining, capped at zero) · moat 0 yr · discount 11.8% · Zero-growth downside $38

Price as of 2026-07-21 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-07-21.

Method & numbers

Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.

Model cautions

  • Capex doubled within two years: maintenance is floored then capped at D&A (OE may look optimistic); Greenwald growth value is closed — growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $22.16 – $28.28 · Greenwald zero-growth $38.32 · zero-growth base $38.32 · reproduction $38.32

Moat Below asset base · terminal value 33% of present value · owner-earnings yield 5% vs 10Y 4.6%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)

Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.

Normalized NOPAT from operating margin — not applicable when operating income is not reported separately. Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge (+ cash − total debt) — not applied (lens not assessable).

Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

Buffett owner-earnings value$23.97 – $28.64 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 10.3–12.3% band (9–11% base + 1.3pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 1.3pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 5.5 years of owner earnings, adding 1.3pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $8.53B = $38.32 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Growth value gated to zero — capex doubled within two years (AI-hog); growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.

Window FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 5.5 years of owner earnings → +1.3pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 10.3%–12.3%.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 0% (history declining → capped at 0) · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 10.39%–13.26% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +1.26pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-07-21). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about 16.3% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 1.9% a year.

The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.

Even when the value band is low-confidence: use this to see what the price assumes — not as a cheapness confirmation.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

4 holders · $132.3M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited

This quarter3 added
Holders 5 → 4 · last 8q

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Jefferies Financial Group In (JEF) is held by 4 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $132.3M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Steven Romick, where it makes up 1.5% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Warren Buffett (0.0% of its book), Francis Chou (2.9% of its book) and Ray Dalio (0.0% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in JEF, 3 added to existing ones, 0 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-03-31. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

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Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-03-31 · filed 2026-05-15

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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