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Arch Capital Group Ltd

ACGLStrike zoneExpectations · modest

Held by 3 superinvestors.

Price$101.14
Margin of safety−45%
Holders3
Total value$44.8M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-12-31

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

Revenue growth
+14.3%
Net margin
22.1%
ROE
18.2%
FCF margin
30.7%
Revenue $8.53B → $19.93B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Margin of safety

$184/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$101
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$105

Central IV

$184

Optimistic top

$226

Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGL): A conservative value band $105–$226 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $184. Today’s price sits below that band (price $101 as of 2026-08-24).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

Revenue growth 7% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 10 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $105

Price as of 2026-08-24 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-21.

Method & numbers

Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.

Model cautions

  • Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).
  • Growth nearly matches the discount rate — the estimate is sensitive to assumptions.

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $114.90 – $225.80 · Greenwald zero-growth $128.34 · zero-growth base $128.34 · reproduction $65.62

Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 50% of present value · owner-earnings yield 11% vs 10Y 4.7%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)

Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.

Normalized NOPAT from operating margin — not applicable when operating income is not reported separately. Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge (+ cash − total debt) — not applied (lens not assessable).

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

Buffett owner-earnings value$105.00 – $128.34 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex or D&A unavailable → degraded to normalized net income (= average net income over the years shown). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied. Financial issuer (bank/insurer): net debt / owner earnings does not describe a deposit-funded balance sheet, so no leverage premium is applied here; leverage is instead handled by the reliability gate.

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $22.89B = $65.62 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.

Growth value not assessable — Operating income is not available across the window, so ROIIC / growth value cannot be computed.

Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 1% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 7% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.24%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-21). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about -4.0% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 20.4% a year.

Below what it has already done.

Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 1 more years to hold up.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

3 holders · $44.8M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -1 exited

This quarter2 added1 trimmed1 exited
Holders 4 → 3 · last 8q
Exited this quarter (1)
John Armitage

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGL) is held by 3 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $44.8M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Ray Dalio, where it makes up 0.1% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Jeremy Grantham (0.0% of its book) and Arnold Van Den Berg (1.7% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in ACGL, 2 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 1 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

Also held by these investors

Investors holding Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGL) also commonly hold →

ACGL's price sits below its conservative value band. See the full strike-zone list

Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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