Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc
TMOAbove valueHeld by 14 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-27 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +3.9%
- Net margin
- 15.0%
- ROE
- 12.6%
- FCF margin
- 14.1%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$81
Central IV
$153
Optimistic top
$176
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (TMO): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $81–$176 / sh. Today’s price sits above both (price $634 as of 2026-08-26).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
- Recent earnings are below the multi-year average, so the band uses the lower run-rate.
Revenue growth 0% (history declining, capped at zero) · moat 10 yr · discount 11.9% · Zero-growth downside $81
Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.
Method & numbers
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $136.54 – $173.45 · Greenwald $176.13 – $176.13 (neutral $176.13) · zero-growth base $176.13 · reproduction $51.28
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 32% of present value · owner-earnings yield 3% vs 10Y 4.7%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$80.58 – $121.54 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-06-27, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (ok) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).
Buffett owner-earnings value$147.60 – $176.13 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 10.3–12.3% band (9–11% base + 1.3pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-06-27, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (ok); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 1.3pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 5.7 years of owner earnings, adding 1.3pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $-20.76B + capitalized R&D $3.07B（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $51.28 / sh. Reproduction value = intangible-inclusive net reproduction (tangible net assets + acquired-intangible reset proxy + capitalized R&D), ÷ diluted shares; tangible net assets alone are negative for this asset-light franchise.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.
Growth value: if the moat holds for 10 yr at ROIIC ≈ -24%, $0.00–$0.00 / sh (neutral $0.00). Conservative, not a forecast.
Window TTM 2026-06-27, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 9% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 5.7 years of owner earnings → +1.3pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 10.3%–12.3%.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 0% (history declining → capped at 0) · OE FY TTM 2026-06-27, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 10.51%–13.35% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +1.35pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 14%.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-27 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 28.6% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 5.4% a year.
The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.
Even when the value band is low-confidence: use this to see what the price assumes — not as a cheapness confirmation.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
14 holders · $4.48B combined · this quarter +2 opened / -1 exited
- Value$1.53BWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.8% ▲
- Value$1.37BWeight (prev→now)3.1% → 3.1% ▼
- Value$971.3MWeight (prev→now)2.3% → 2.8% ▲
- Value$258.0MWeight (prev→now)9.7% → 9.8% ▲
- Value$124.5MWeight (prev→now)1.5% → 1.5% ▲
- Value$82.9MWeight (prev→now)New · 2.6%
- Value$57.8MWeight (prev→now)4.2% → 4.0% ▼
- Value$36.6MWeight (prev→now)0.3% → 0.3% ▲
- Value$13.9MWeight (prev→now)1.0% → 1.1% ▲
- Value$9.6MWeight (prev→now)New · 0.2%
Show all 14 holders ▸Collapse ▾
- Value$7.2MWeight (prev→now)1.6% → 1.5% ▼
- Value$6.5MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
- Value$3.3MWeight (prev→now)0.8% → 0.7% ▼
- Value$376,020Weight (prev→now)0.2% → 0.3% ▲
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (TMO) is held by 14 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $4.48B in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Dodge & Cox, where it makes up 0.8% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Jeremy Grantham (3.1% of its book), Andreas Halvorsen (2.8% of its book) and Nick Train (9.8% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 2 of the tracked filers opened a new position in TMO, 8 added to existing ones, 3 trimmed, and 1 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
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Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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