Autodesk Inc
ADSKWithin bandExpectations · fairHeld by 3 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2026-01-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-07-31 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +17.5%
- Net margin
- 15.6%
- ROE
- 36.9%
- FCF margin
- 33.4%
Valuation · value band
In fair-value range
Zero-growth floor
$68
Central IV
$208
Optimistic top
$312
Autodesk Inc (ADSK): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $68–$312 / sh. Today’s price sits inside both (price $242 as of 2026-09-02).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 13% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 20 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $68
Price as of 2026-09-02 · yahoo · DGS10 4.8% @ 2026-09-01.
Method & numbers
Model cautions
- Growth nearly matches the discount rate — the estimate is sensitive to assumptions.
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $87.81 – $260.62 · Greenwald $145.11 – $312.28 (neutral $235.39) · zero-growth base $84.05 · reproduction $20.91
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 29% of present value · owner-earnings yield 3% vs 10Y 4.8%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$67.57 – $81.95 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-07-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 921% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$68.77 – $84.05 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-07-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 921% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $-1.37B + capitalized R&D $3.40B（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $20.91 / sh. Reproduction value = intangible-inclusive net reproduction (tangible net assets + acquired-intangible reset proxy + capitalized R&D), ÷ diluted shares; tangible net assets alone are negative for this asset-light franchise.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a wide moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 20 years (earnings intact, ROIC stable over history).
Growth value: if the moat holds for 20 yr at ROIIC ≈ 231%, $61.06–$228.23 / sh (neutral $151.34). Conservative, not a forecast.
Window TTM 2026-07-31, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 17% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 13% · OE FY TTM 2026-07-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.29%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-09-01). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 12%.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-07-31 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 14.9% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 13.1% a year.
About its own track record.
Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 16 more years to hold up.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
3 holders · $69.0M combined · this quarter +1 opened / -0 exited
- Value$60.1MWeight (prev→now)1.5% → 1.0% ▼
- Value$8.6MWeight (prev→now)New · 0.0%
- Value$292,797Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Autodesk Inc (ADSK) is held by 3 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $69.0M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Fred Martin, where it makes up 1.0% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Ray Dalio (0.0% of its book) and Richard Pzena (0.0% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 1 of the tracked filers opened a new position in ADSK, 2 added to existing ones, 0 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Autodesk Inc (ADSK) also commonly hold →
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- Corebridge Financial IncCRBG2 holders
ADSK's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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