Aflac Inc
AFLAbove valueHeld by 4 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- -9.3%
- Net margin
- 21.2%
- ROE
- 12.4%
- FCF margin
- —
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$64
Central IV
$78
Optimistic top
$92
Aflac Inc (AFL): A conservative value band $64–$92 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $78. Today’s price sits above that band (price $116 as of 2026-08-25).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
- Recent earnings are below the multi-year average, so the band uses the lower run-rate.
Revenue growth 0% (history declining, capped at zero) · moat 10 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $64
Price as of 2026-08-25 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-24.
Method & numbers
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $69.24 – $90.32 · Greenwald zero-growth $92.33 · zero-growth base $92.33 · reproduction $43.71
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 37% of present value · owner-earnings yield 7% vs 10Y 4.7%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$64.29 – $80.11 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2021, 2020
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex unavailable → degraded to the v1 simplification (maintenance capex = D&A, so the depreciation add-back nets to zero). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$75.54 – $92.33 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2021, 2020
v1 simplifications: Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Maintenance capex or D&A unavailable → degraded to normalized net income (= average net income over the years shown). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied. Financial issuer (bank/insurer): net debt / owner earnings does not describe a deposit-funded balance sheet, so no leverage premium is applied here; leverage is instead handled by the reliability gate.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $22.10B = $43.71 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.
Growth value not assessable — No positive growth reinvestment in the matured window, so ROIIC cannot be computed.
Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2021, 2020 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 4% (Average effective tax rate over 3 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 0% (history declining → capped at 0) · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2021, 2020 · Discount band: 9.20%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-24). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
How to read intrinsic valueSEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
4 holders · $34.2M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited
- Value$27.7MWeight (prev→now)0.3% → 0.3% ▼
- Value$5.5MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
- Value$734,451Weight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.1% ▼
- Value$290,311Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Aflac Inc (AFL) is held by 4 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $34.2M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to John Rogers, where it makes up 0.3% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Jeremy Grantham (0.0% of its book), David Katz (0.1% of its book) and Ray Dalio (0.0% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in AFL, 1 added to existing ones, 3 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
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Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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