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Aflac Inc

AFL高于价值

4 位超级投资者持有。

现价$116.17
持有人数4
合计市值$34.2M

SEC 10-K · 基本面

生意质量

截至 2025-12-31

估值口径:截至 2026-06-30 的滚动十二个月(最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q)。

营收增速
-9.3%
净利率
21.2%
ROE
12.4%
FCF 利润率
营收 $22.15B → $17.16B · 近 6 年
什么样的生意算优质

估值 · 价值带

高于合理价值

$79/ 股 · 含增长中枢内在价值
安全边际
合理价值
高于合理价值
$116
更便宜更贵

零增长底

$64

中枢 IV

$79

乐观上沿

$92

Aflac Inc(AFL):保守价值带 $64–$92 / 股(零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿),中枢约 $79。今日价格高于这条带(价格 $116 截至 2026-08-20)。

中间是主读数;右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档,不是绝对上限。

  • 最新盈利低于多年均值,价值带按更低的运行率计。

营收增 0%(历史下滑,封顶为零) · 护城河 10 年 · 折现 10.6% · 零增长下行 $64

价格截至 2026-08-20 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-19.

方法与数字

保守内在价值带(零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF)加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。

所有者盈利 DCF $69.24 – $90.81 · Greenwald 零增长 $92.33 · 零增长基准 $92.33 · 重置 $43.71

护城河 特许经营(护城河) · 终值占现值 37% · 所有者盈利收益率 7% 对 10Y 4.7%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$64.29 – $80.11 / 股

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

年份:TTM 2026-06-30, 2021, 2020

v1 简化:Maintenance capex unavailable → degraded to the v1 simplification (maintenance capex = D&A, so the depreciation add-back nets to zero). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).

Buffett owner-earnings value$75.54 – $92.33 / 股

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

年份:TTM 2026-06-30, 2021, 2020

v1 简化:Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Maintenance capex or D&A unavailable → degraded to normalized net income (= average net income over the years shown). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied. Financial issuer (bank/insurer): net debt / owner earnings does not describe a deposit-funded balance sheet, so no leverage premium is applied here; leverage is instead handled by the reliability gate.

重置价值 = 有形净资产 $22.10B = $43.71 / 股. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).

护城河读数:Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

假设一般护城河 · 竞争优势期约 10 年。

增长价值无法评估 — No positive growth reinvestment in the matured window, so ROIIC cannot be computed.

窗口 TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2021, 2020 · 贴现带 9%11% · 正常化税率 4% (Average effective tax rate over 3 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.

所有者盈利 DCF:增长 g₁ 0%(历史下滑 → 封顶为 0) · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2021, 2020 · Discount band: 9.15%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-19). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.

估值口径:截至 2026-06-30 的滚动十二个月(最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q)。

内在价值怎么读

SEC 13F · 持有人

持有该证券的超级投资者

4 位持有 · 合计 $34.2M · 本季 +0 新建 / -0 清仓

本季动向1 家加仓3 家减仓
持有人 4 → 4 · 近 8 季
  • 市值$27.7M权重(上季→本季)0.3% 0.3%
  • 市值$5.5M权重(上季→本季)0.0% 0.0%
  • 市值$734,451权重(上季→本季)0.1% 0.1%
  • 市值$290,311权重(上季→本季)0.0% 0.0%

SEC 13F · 说明

文字说明

Aflac Inc(AFL)被 Compounder 追踪的 4 位超级投资者持有,合计申报市值 $34.2M。仓位最大的是 John Rogers,占其组合 0.3%。

按市值,其他主要持有人包括 Jeremy Grantham(占其组合 0.0%)David Katz(占其组合 0.1%)Ray Dalio(占其组合 0.0%)

最近一个季度,追踪范围内有 0 位新建 AFL 仓位,1 位加仓,3 位减仓,0 位清仓。

以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报,截至 2026-06-30 季度。来源:SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓,且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天,因此这是已披露的多头持有情况,并非完整全貌。

如何读懂 13F

SEC 13F · 共持信号

他们还共同持有

持有 Aflac Inc(AFL)的这些人还共同重仓 →

看哪些股票相对价值带便宜。 浏览全部可估值股票

也可在

数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-06-30 · 2026-08-14 提交

仅供教育与信息参考,不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报,可能滞后最多 45 天。

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