Assured Guaranty Ltd
AGOBelow valueHeld by 2 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-12-31- Revenue growth
- —
- Net margin
- —
- ROE
- 8.9%
- FCF margin
- —
Valuation · value band
Margin of safety
Zero-growth floor
$116
Central IV
$97
Optimistic top
$116
Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO): A conservative value band $116 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $97. Today’s price sits below that band (price $76 as of 2026-08-26).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 2% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 0 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $116
Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.
Method & numbers
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
Price is at or below the reproducible tangible asset base ($116 / sh) — a rarer, harder floor.
Model cautions
- Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $76.05 – $115.24 · Greenwald zero-growth $116.28 · zero-growth base $116.28 · reproduction $116.28
Moat Commodity-like · terminal value 42% of present value · owner-earnings yield 12% vs 10Y 4.7%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
Normalized NOPAT from operating margin — not applicable when operating income is not reported separately. Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge (+ cash − total debt) — not applied (lens not assessable).
Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
Buffett owner-earnings value$79.56 – $97.24 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex or D&A unavailable → degraded to normalized net income (= average net income over the years shown). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied. Financial issuer (bank/insurer): net debt / owner earnings does not describe a deposit-funded balance sheet, so no leverage premium is applied here; leverage is instead handled by the reliability gate.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $5.66B = $116.28 / sh. Total book value (shareholders' equity ÷ diluted shares); intangibles not separated — goodwill/intangibles unavailable this period.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. Dual reproduction test unavailable (intangibles not separated). A directional reading, not a verdict.
Growth value gated to zero — no moat or ROIIC ≤ WACC, so no growth value is credited.
Window FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 9% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 2% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.16%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
2 holders · $6.7M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited
- Value$5.3MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
- Value$1.4MWeight (prev→now)0.7% → 0.6% ▼
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) is held by 2 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $6.7M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Ray Dalio, where it makes up 0.0% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Francis Chou (0.6% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in AGO, 0 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) also commonly hold →
- Apple IncAAPL2 holders
- Wells Fargo & CoWFC2 holders
- Citigroup IncC2 holders
- Bank Of America CorpBAC2 holders
- Alphabet Inc-Cl CGOOG2 holders
- Synchrony FinancialSYF2 holders
AGO's price is below its conservative value band. Browse all undervalued stocks by margin of safety
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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