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Amrize Ltd

AMRZAbove valueExpectations · demanding

Held by 4 superinvestors.

Price$44.74
Holders4
Total value$965.9M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-12-31

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

Revenue growth
+0.9%
Net margin
10.0%
ROE
8.9%
FCF margin
12.0%
Revenue $11.68B → $11.81B · 3y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Above fair value

$17/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$45
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$15

Central IV

$17

Optimistic top

$20

Amrize Ltd (AMRZ): A conservative value band $15–$20 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $17. Today’s price sits above that band (price $45 as of 2026-08-26).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

Revenue growth 0% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 10 yr · discount 11.5% · Zero-growth downside $15

Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.

Method & numbers

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $15.22 – $19.51 · Greenwald zero-growth $20.41 · zero-growth base $20.41 · reproduction $3.87

Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 34% of present value · owner-earnings yield 4% vs 10Y 4.7%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$14.96 – $20.41 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).

Buffett owner-earnings value$16.50 – $19.82 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9.9–11.9% band (9–11% base + 0.9pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023

v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 0.9pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 4.8 years of owner earnings, adding 0.9pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $2.14B = $3.87 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.

Growth value not assessable — No positive growth reinvestment in the matured window, so ROIIC cannot be computed.

Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 3 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 4.8 years of owner earnings → +0.9pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 9.9%–11.9%.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 0% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023 · Discount band: 10.08%–12.92% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +0.92pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about 19.0% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 0.6% a year.

The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

4 holders · $965.9M combined · this quarter +1 opened / -0 exited

This quarter1 opened3 added
Holders 2 → 4 · last 5q

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Amrize Ltd (AMRZ) is held by 4 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $965.9M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Bill Nygren, where it makes up 1.0% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Steven Romick (2.1% of its book), Leon Cooperman (1.3% of its book) and Jeremy Grantham (0.0% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 1 of the tracked filers opened a new position in AMRZ, 3 added to existing ones, 0 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

Also held by these investors

Investors holding Amrize Ltd (AMRZ) also commonly hold →

AMRZ's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks

Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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