Netflix Inc
NFLXWithin bandHeld by 13 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
As of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +15.9%
- Net margin
- 24.3%
- ROE
- 41.3%
- FCF margin
- 20.9%
Valuation · value band
In fair-value range
Zero-growth floor
$19
Central IV
$61
Optimistic top
$74
Netflix Inc (NFLX): A conservative value band $19–$74 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $61. Today’s price sits inside that band (price $71 as of 2026-10-16).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
- Capex doubled in two years, so maintenance is hard to pin down — read the band conservatively.
Revenue growth 12% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 20 yr · discount 10.8% · Zero-growth downside $19
Price as of 2026-10-16 · yahoo · DGS10 5.1% @ 2026-10-15.
Method & numbers
Model cautions
- Capex doubled within two years: maintenance is floored then capped at D&A (OE may look optimistic); Greenwald growth value is closed — growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.
- Growth nearly matches the discount rate — the estimate is sensitive to assumptions.
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $28.77 – $73.94 · Greenwald zero-growth $28.60 · zero-growth base $28.60 · reproduction $4.77
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 27% of present value · owner-earnings yield 4% vs 10Y 5.1%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$19.32 – $23.89 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (ok) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$23.40 – $28.60 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (ok); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $-3.69B + capitalized R&D $7.08B（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $4.77 / sh. Reproduction value = intangible-inclusive net reproduction (tangible net assets + acquired-intangible reset proxy + capitalized R&D), ÷ diluted shares; tangible net assets alone are negative for this asset-light franchise.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a wide moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 20 years (earnings intact, ROIC stable over history).
Growth value gated to zero — capex doubled within two years (AI-hog); growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.
Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 14% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 12% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.60%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-10-15). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 13.3% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 11.6% a year.
About its own track record.
Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 16 more years to hold up.
Even when the value band is low-confidence: use this to see what the price assumes — not as a cheapness confirmation.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
13 holders · $3.41B combined · this quarter +4 opened / -2 exited
- Value$934.0MWeight (prev→now)New · 4.8%
- Value$786.5MWeight (prev→now)1.3% → 1.0% ▼
- Value$739.0MWeight (prev→now)1.0% → 1.7% ▲
- Value$499.1MWeight (prev→now)New · 3.7%
- Value$407.7MWeight (prev→now)6.3% → 4.6% ▼
- Value$19.7MWeight (prev→now)7.8% → 5.4% ▼
- Value$10.5MWeight (prev→now)New · 0.7%
- Value$4.9MWeight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.0% ▼
- Value$4.3MWeight (prev→now)1.7% → 0.0% ▼
- Value$2.9MWeight (prev→now)New · 0.0%
Show all 13 holders ▸Collapse ▾
- Value$1.2MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
- Value$577,697Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
- Value$212,772Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Netflix Inc (NFLX) is held by 13 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $3.41B in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Bill Ackman, where it makes up 4.8% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Bill Nygren (1.0% of its book), Jeremy Grantham (1.7% of its book) and Terry Smith (3.7% of its book).
In the quarter ended 2026-06-30, 4 of the tracked filers opened a new position in NFLX, 3 added to existing ones, 3 trimmed, and 2 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
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Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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