Ball Corp
BALLAbove valueHeld by 1 superinvestor.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +11.6%
- Net margin
- 7.0%
- ROE
- 16.9%
- FCF margin
- 6.0%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$6
Central IV
$23
Optimistic top
$52
Ball Corp (BALL): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $6–$52 / sh. Today’s price sits above both (price $64 as of 2026-08-26).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 3% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 10 yr · discount 14.5% · Zero-growth downside $6
Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.
Method & numbers
Model cautions
- The two methods’ midpoints differ materially — growth assumptions warrant review (over 20%).
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $17.81 – $25.90 · Greenwald $30.49 – $52.29 (neutral $40.76) · zero-growth base $20.46 · reproduction $4.20
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 33% of present value · owner-earnings yield 4% vs 10Y 4.7%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$6.35 – $14.13 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2022, 2021, 2020
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$17.72 – $20.46 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 12.9–14.9% band (9–11% base + 3.9pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2022, 2021, 2020
v1 simplifications: Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 3.9pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 10.8 years of owner earnings, adding 3.9pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $-1.83B + capitalized R&D $151.40M（FY 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020） = $4.20 / sh. Reproduction value = intangible-inclusive net reproduction (tangible net assets + acquired-intangible reset proxy + capitalized R&D), ÷ diluted shares; tangible net assets alone are negative for this asset-light franchise.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.
Growth value: if the moat holds for 10 yr at ROIIC ≈ 45%, $10.03–$31.83 / sh (neutral $20.30). Conservative, not a forecast.
Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2022, 2021, 2020 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 16% (Average effective tax rate over 4 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 10.8 years of owner earnings → +3.9pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 12.9%–14.9%.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 3% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2022, 2021, 2020 · Discount band: 13.08%–15.92% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +3.92pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 57%.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
How to read intrinsic valueSEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
1 holder · $1.9M combined · this quarter +1 opened / -1 exited
- Value$1.9MWeight (prev→now)New · 0.0%
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Ball Corp (BALL) is held by 1 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $1.9M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Ray Dalio, where it makes up 0.0% of the portfolio.
Over the latest quarter, 1 of the tracked filers opened a new position in BALL, 0 added to existing ones, 0 trimmed, and 1 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
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BALL's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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