Ball Corp
BALL高于价值1 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-12-31- 营收增速
- +11.6%
- 净利率
- 7.0%
- ROE
- 16.9%
- FCF 利润率
- 6.0%
估值 · 价值带
高于合理价值
零增长底
$6
中枢 IV
$22
乐观上沿
$51
Ball Corp（BALL）：两种方法为该业务估值 — 一为保守的所有者盈利 DCF，一为计入增长的 Greenwald 估计，$6–$51 / 股。今日价格高于二者（价格 $62 截至 2026-07-22）。
中间是主读数；右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档，不是绝对上限。
营收增 3%（历史增长与基本面上限的较小值，受护城河封顶） · 护城河 10 年 · 折现 14.5% · 零增长下行 $6
价格截至 2026-07-22 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-07-21.
方法与数字
模型警示
- 两种方法的中值差异显著 — 增长假设值得复核（超过 20%）。
保守内在价值带（零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF）加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $17.24 – $25.14 · Greenwald $29.51 – $50.61 (中性 $39.45) · 零增长基准 $19.81 · 重置 $4.06
护城河 特许经营（护城河） · 终值占现值 33% · 所有者盈利收益率 4% 对 10Y 4.6%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$6.14 – $13.68 / 股
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
年份：2023, 2022, 2021, 2020
v1 简化：Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$17.15 – $19.81 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 12.9–14.9% band (9–11% base + 3.9pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份：2023, 2022, 2021, 2020
v1 简化：Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 3.9pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 10.8 years of owner earnings, adding 3.9pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
重置价值 = 有形净资产 $-1.83B + 资本化研发 $151.40M（FY 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020） = $4.06 / 股. Reproduction value = intangible-inclusive net reproduction (tangible net assets + acquired-intangible reset proxy + capitalized R&D), ÷ diluted shares; tangible net assets alone are negative for this asset-light franchise.
护城河读数：Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
假设一般护城河 · 竞争优势期约 10 年。
增长价值：若护城河在 10 年 内维持于 ROIIC ≈ 45%，则 $9.71–$30.81 / 股（中性 $19.65）。保守估计，非预测。
窗口 FY 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 16% (Average effective tax rate over 4 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
基线 9%–11%，净债务约 10.8 年所有者盈利 → 加 3.9 个百分点风险溢价 → 实际 12.9%–14.9%。
所有者盈利 DCF：增长 g₁ 3% · OE FY 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020 · Discount band: 13.05%–15.92% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +3.92pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-07-21). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. 两法中值差 56%。
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
1 位持有 · 合计 $49.5M · 本季 +0 新建 / -0 清仓
- 市值$49.5M权重（上季→本季）0.9% → 0.8% ▼
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
Ball Corp（BALL）被 Compounder 追踪的 1 位超级投资者持有，合计申报市值 $49.5M。仓位最大的是 David Tepper，占其组合 0.8%。
最近一个季度，追踪范围内有 0 位新建 BALL 仓位，0 位加仓，1 位减仓，0 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报，截至 2026-03-31 季度。来源：SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓，且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天，因此这是已披露的多头持有情况，并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 Ball Corp（BALL）的这些人还共同重仓 →
BALL 现价不低于保守价值带。 看当前击球区股票
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-03-31 · 2026-05-15 提交
仅供教育与信息参考，不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报，可能滞后最多 45 天。
订阅更新
新一季 13F 异动与估值更新，发到你的邮箱。