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Bgc Group Inc-A

BGCAbove valueExpectations · demanding

Held by 2 superinvestors.

Price$12.15
Holders2
Total value$17.2M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-12-31

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

Revenue growth
+34.7%
Net margin
6.3%
ROE
15.9%
FCF margin
15.3%
Revenue $1.69B → $2.44B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Above fair value

$2/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$12
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$1

Central IV

$2

Optimistic top

$3

Bgc Group Inc-A (BGC): A conservative value band $1–$3 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $2. Today’s price sits above that band (price $12 as of 2026-09-03).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

Revenue growth 7% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 10 yr · discount 14.2% · Zero-growth downside $1

Price as of 2026-09-03 · yahoo · DGS10 4.8% @ 2026-09-02.

Method & numbers

Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.

Model cautions

  • Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $1.58 – $2.54 · Greenwald zero-growth $1.68 · zero-growth base $1.68 · reproduction $0.10

Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 36% of present value · owner-earnings yield 2% vs 10Y 4.8%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)

Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.

Normalized NOPAT from operating margin — not applicable when operating income is not reported separately. Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge (+ cash − total debt) — not applied (lens not assessable).

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

Buffett owner-earnings value$1.45 – $1.68 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 12.5–14.5% band (9–11% base + 3.5pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 3.5pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 10.0 years of owner earnings, adding 3.5pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $47.90M = $0.10 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.

Growth value not assessable — Operating income is not available across the window, so ROIIC / growth value cannot be computed.

Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 10.0 years of owner earnings → +3.5pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 12.5%–14.5%.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 7% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 12.80%–15.51% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +3.51pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-09-02). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about over 30.0% (outside the usual range) a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 6.6% a year.

The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

2 holders · $17.2M combined · this quarter +1 opened / -0 exited

This quarter1 opened1 added
Holders 2 → 2 · last 8q

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Bgc Group Inc-A (BGC) is held by 2 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $17.2M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Ronald Muhlenkamp, where it makes up 4.5% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Ray Dalio (0.0% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 1 of the tracked filers opened a new position in BGC, 1 added to existing ones, 0 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

Also held by these investors

Investors holding Bgc Group Inc-A (BGC) also commonly hold →

BGC's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks

Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-18

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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