Bgc Group Inc-A
BGC高于价值预期 · 苛刻1 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-12-31- 营收增速
- +34.7%
- 净利率
- 6.3%
- ROE
- 15.9%
- FCF 利润率
- 15.3%
估值 · 价值带
高于合理价值
零增长底
$1
中枢 IV
$2
乐观上沿
$2
Bgc Group Inc-A（BGC）：保守价值带 $1–$2 / 股（零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿），中枢约 $2。今日价格高于这条带（价格 $11 截至 2026-07-21）。
中间是主读数；右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档，不是绝对上限。
营收增 6%（历史增长与基本面上限的较小值，受护城河封顶） · 护城河 10 年 · 折现 14.6% · 零增长下行 $1
价格截至 2026-07-21 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-07-20.
方法与数字
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
模型警示
- 所有者盈利收益率与 10 年期美债大幅背离（超过 300 个基点）。
保守内在价值带（零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF）加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $1.27 – $1.99 · Greenwald 零增长 $1.36 · 零增长基准 $1.36 · 重置 $0.90
护城河 特许经营（护城河） · 终值占现值 35% · 所有者盈利收益率 2% 对 10Y 4.6%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
Normalized NOPAT from operating margin — not applicable when operating income is not reported separately. Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge (+ cash − total debt) — not applied (lens not assessable).
年份：2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
Buffett owner-earnings value$1.18 – $1.36 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 13.0–15.0% band (9–11% base + 4.0pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份：2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 4.0pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 11.1 years of owner earnings, adding 4.0pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
资产地板：Reproduction value = tangible net assets + acquired-intangible reset proxy, ÷ diluted shares; tangible net assets alone are negative for this asset-light franchise (no R&D history to capitalize).
护城河读数：Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
假设一般护城河 · 竞争优势期约 10 年。
增长价值无法评估 — Operating income is not available across the window, so ROIIC / growth value cannot be computed.
窗口 FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
基线 9%–11%，净债务约 11.1 年所有者盈利 → 加 4.0 个百分点风险溢价 → 实际 13.0%–15.0%。
所有者盈利 DCF：增长 g₁ 6% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 13.10%–16.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +4.00pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-07-20). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
价格在赌什么
现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 高于 30.0%（已超出常规区间）；公司过去营收年增 6.6%。
市场要它明显快过自己一贯的水平。
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
1 位持有 · 合计 $14.1M · 本季 +0 新建 / -0 清仓
- 市值$14.1M权重（上季→本季）4.2% → 3.7% ▼
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
Bgc Group Inc-A（BGC）被 Compounder 追踪的 1 位超级投资者持有，合计申报市值 $14.1M。仓位最大的是 Ronald Muhlenkamp，占其组合 3.7%。
最近一个季度，追踪范围内有 0 位新建 BGC 仓位，0 位加仓，1 位减仓，0 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报，截至 2026-03-31 季度。来源：SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓，且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天，因此这是已披露的多头持有情况，并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 Bgc Group Inc-A（BGC）的这些人还共同重仓 →
BGC 现价不低于保守价值带。 看当前击球区股票
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-03-31 · 2026-05-06 提交
仅供教育与信息参考，不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报，可能滞后最多 45 天。
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