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California Resources Corp

CRCWithin band

Held by 2 superinvestors.

Price$52.25
Holders2
Total value$56.5M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-12-31
Revenue growth
+14.7%
Net margin
12.5%
ROE
9.9%
FCF margin
18.7%
Revenue $2.27B → $2.91B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

In fair-value range

$14/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$52
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$42

Central IV

$14

Optimistic top

$152

California Resources Corp (CRC): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $42–$152 / sh. Today’s price sits inside both (price $52 as of 2026-07-20).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

  • Recent earnings are below the multi-year average, so the band uses the lower run-rate.

Revenue growth 0% (history declining, capped at zero) · moat 10 yr · discount 12.6% · Zero-growth downside $42

Price as of 2026-07-20 · yahoo · DGS10 4.5% @ 2026-07-17.

Method & numbers

Model cautions

  • The two methods’ midpoints differ materially — growth assumptions warrant review (over 20%).

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $12.88 – $16.29 · Greenwald $86.81 – $151.97 (neutral $120.39) · zero-growth base $62.85 · reproduction $42.04

Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 30% of present value · owner-earnings yield 3% vs 10Y 4.5%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$49.03 – $62.85 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).

Buffett owner-earnings value$13.87 – $16.36 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 11.1–13.1% band (9–11% base + 2.1pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 2.1pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 7.2 years of owner earnings, adding 2.1pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $3.67B = $42.04 / sh. Total book value (shareholders' equity ÷ diluted shares); intangibles not separated — goodwill/intangibles unavailable this period.

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. Dual reproduction test unavailable (intangibles not separated). A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.

Growth value: if the moat holds for 10 yr at ROIIC ≈ 51%, $23.95–$89.12 / sh (neutral $57.53). Conservative, not a forecast.

Window FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 0% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 7.2 years of owner earnings → +2.1pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 11.1%–13.1%.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 0% (history declining → capped at 0) · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 11.17%–14.12% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +2.12pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-07-17). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 157%.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about 26.2% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 3.9% a year.

The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.

Even when the value band is low-confidence: use this to see what the price assumes — not as a cheapness confirmation.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

2 holders · $56.5M combined · this quarter +1 opened / -2 exited

This quarter1 opened1 trimmed2 exited
Holders 2 → 2 · last 8q
Exited this quarter (2)
Howard MarksRay Dalio

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

California Resources Corp (CRC) is held by 2 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $56.5M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Jeremy Grantham, where it makes up 0.1% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Lee Ainslie (0.0% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 1 of the tracked filers opened a new position in CRC, 0 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 2 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-03-31. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

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Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-03-31 · filed 2026-05-15

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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