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Duke Energy Corp

DUKAbove valueExpectations · demanding

Held by 2 superinvestors.

Price$125.85
Holders2
Total value$253.2M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-12-31
Revenue growth
+5.6%
Net margin
15.7%
ROE
9.6%
FCF margin
-5.3%
Revenue $23.48B → $31.74B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Above fair value

$31/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$126
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$42

Central IV

$31

Optimistic top

$42

Duke Energy Corp (DUK): A conservative value band $42 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $31. Today’s price sits above that band (price $126 as of 2026-07-20).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

Revenue growth 4% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 0 yr · discount 14.5% · Zero-growth downside $42

Price as of 2026-07-20 · yahoo · DGS10 4.5% @ 2026-07-17.

Method & numbers

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $23.16 – $34.90 · Greenwald zero-growth $41.88 · zero-growth base $41.88 · reproduction $41.88

Moat Below asset base · terminal value 34% of present value · owner-earnings yield 3% vs 10Y 4.5%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$-33.44 – $-15.24 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 77% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).

Buffett owner-earnings value$22.52 – $25.99 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 13.0–15.0% band (9–11% base + 4.0pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 77% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 4.0pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 34.1 years of owner earnings, adding 4.0pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $32.54B = $41.88 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Growth value gated to zero — no moat or ROIIC ≤ WACC, so no growth value is credited.

Window FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 9% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 34.1 years of owner earnings → +4.0pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 13.0%–15.0%.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 4% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 13.05%–16.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +4.00pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-07-17). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about over 30.0% (outside the usual range) a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 6.2% a year.

The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

2 holders · $253.2M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited

This quarter1 added1 trimmed
Holders 1 → 2 · last 8q

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Duke Energy Corp (DUK) is held by 2 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $253.2M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Jim Cullen, where it makes up 2.6% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Jeremy Grantham (0.0% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in DUK, 1 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-03-31. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

Also held by these investors

Investors holding Duke Energy Corp (DUK) also commonly hold →

DUK's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks

Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-03-31 · filed 2026-05-15

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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