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Excelerate Energy Inc-A

EEBelow valueExpectations · modest

Held by 1 superinvestor.

Price$39.43
Margin of safety−3%
Holders1
Total value$801,133

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-12-31
Revenue growth
+44.3%
Net margin
13.6%
ROE
7.5%
FCF margin
—
Revenue $430.8M → $1.23B · 6y

Fundamentals data incomplete — read with care.

What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Margin of safety

$40/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$39
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$53

Central IV

$40

Optimistic top

$53

Excelerate Energy Inc-A (EE): A conservative value band $53 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $40. Today’s price sits below that band (price $39 as of 2026-08-24).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

Revenue growth 0% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 10 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $53

Price as of 2026-08-24 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-21.

Method & numbers

Price is at or below the reproducible tangible asset base ($53 / sh) — a rarer, harder floor.

Model cautions

  • Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $35.81 – $46.50 · Greenwald zero-growth $53.39 · zero-growth base $53.39 · reproduction $53.39

Moat Franchise (via earnings growth) · terminal value 36% of present value · owner-earnings yield 11% vs 10Y 4.7%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$40.70 – $52.64 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex unavailable → degraded to the v1 simplification (maintenance capex = D&A, so the depreciation add-back nets to zero). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).

Buffett owner-earnings value$39.06 – $47.73 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9.0–11.0% band (9–11% base + 0.0pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex or D&A unavailable → degraded to normalized net income (= average net income over the years shown). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 0.0pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 3.0 years of owner earnings, adding 0.0pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $1.63B = $53.39 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.

Growth value gated to zero — franchise via earnings-growth bypass; growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.

Window FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 19% (Average effective tax rate over 4 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 3.0 years of owner earnings → +0.0pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 9.0%–11.0%.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 0% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022 · Discount band: 9.25%–12.01% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +0.01pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-21). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about -0.5% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 13.2% a year.

Below what it has already done.

Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 1 more years to hold up.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

1 holder · $801,133 combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited

This quarter1 trimmed
Holders 1 → 1 · last 2q
  • Ray Dalio
    Value$801,133Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Excelerate Energy Inc-A (EE) is held by 1 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $801,133 in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Ray Dalio, where it makes up 0.0% of the portfolio.

Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in EE, 0 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

Also held by these investors

Investors holding Excelerate Energy Inc-A (EE) also commonly hold →

EE's price is below its conservative value band. Browse all undervalued stocks by margin of safety

Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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