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Hewlett Packard Enterprise

HPEAbove value

Held by 5 superinvestors.

Price$53.44
Holders5
Total value$84.3M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-10-31

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-04-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

Revenue growth
+13.8%
Net margin
0.2%
ROE
0.2%
FCF margin
1.8%
Revenue $26.98B → $34.30B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Above fair value

$23/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$53
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$16

Central IV

$23

Optimistic top

$32

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $16–$32 / sh. Today’s price sits above both (price $53 as of 2026-08-25).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

  • Recent earnings are below the multi-year average, so the band uses the lower run-rate.

Revenue growth 0% (history declining, capped at zero) · moat 10 yr · discount 11.2% · Zero-growth downside $16

Price as of 2026-08-25 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-24.

Method & numbers

Buybacks over the years shown roughly only offset stock-based-compensation dilution — read them as maintaining the share count, not a net return of capital.

Model cautions

  • The two methods’ midpoints differ materially — growth assumptions warrant review (over 20%).

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $20.27 – $26.08 · Greenwald $28.15 – $32.37 (neutral $30.32) · zero-growth base $26.62 · reproduction $11.41

Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 35% of present value · owner-earnings yield 5% vs 10Y 4.7%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$15.74 – $21.60 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: TTM 2026-04-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 445% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).

Buffett owner-earnings value$22.02 – $26.62 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9.6–11.6% band (9–11% base + 0.6pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: TTM 2026-04-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 445% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 0.6pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 4.2 years of owner earnings, adding 0.6pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $-4.36B + capitalized R&D $5.87B（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $11.41 / sh. Reproduction value = intangible-inclusive net reproduction (tangible net assets + acquired-intangible reset proxy + capitalized R&D), ÷ diluted shares; tangible net assets alone are negative for this asset-light franchise.

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.

Growth value: if the moat holds for 10 yr at ROIIC ≈ 50%, $1.53–$5.75 / sh (neutral $3.70). Conservative, not a forecast.

Window TTM 2026-04-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 0% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 4.2 years of owner earnings → +0.6pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 9.6%–11.6%.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 0% (history declining → capped at 0) · OE FY TTM 2026-04-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.78%–12.58% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +0.58pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-24). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 28%.

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-04-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about 16.6% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 4.3% a year.

The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.

Even when the value band is low-confidence: use this to see what the price assumes — not as a cheapness confirmation.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

5 holders · $84.3M combined · this quarter +1 opened / -0 exited

This quarter1 opened4 trimmed
Holders 4 → 5 · last 8q
  • Jeremy Grantham
    Value$43.2MWeight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.1% ▲
  • John Rogers
    Value$33.9MWeight (prev→now)0.4% → 0.3% ▼
  • Ray Dalio
    Value$3.5MWeight (prev→now)0.2% → 0.0% ▼
  • Dodge & Cox
    Value$2.9MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
  • Lee Ainslie
    Value$802,823Weight (prev→now)New · 0.0%

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) is held by 5 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $84.3M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Jeremy Grantham, where it makes up 0.1% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include John Rogers (0.3% of its book), Ray Dalio (0.0% of its book) and Dodge & Cox (0.0% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 1 of the tracked filers opened a new position in HPE, 0 added to existing ones, 4 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

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Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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