Hormel Foods Corp
HRLAbove valueHeld by 3 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-10-26Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-04-26 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +1.6%
- Net margin
- 4.0%
- ROE
- 6.1%
- FCF margin
- 4.4%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$5
Central IV
$7
Optimistic top
$8
Hormel Foods Corp (HRL): A conservative value band $5–$8 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $7. Today’s price sits above that band (price $24 as of 2026-08-24).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
- Recent earnings are below the multi-year average, so the band uses the lower run-rate.
Revenue growth 0% (history declining, capped at zero) · moat 0 yr · discount 11.4% · Zero-growth downside $5
Price as of 2026-08-24 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-21.
Method & numbers
Buybacks over the years shown roughly only offset stock-based-compensation dilution — read them as maintaining the share count, not a net return of capital.
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $6.43 – $8.20 · Greenwald zero-growth $8.40 · zero-growth base $8.40 · reproduction $2.85
Moat Commodity-like · terminal value 34% of present value · owner-earnings yield 3% vs 10Y 4.7%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$5.48 – $7.51 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-04-26, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).
Buffett owner-earnings value$6.97 – $8.40 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9.7–11.7% band (9–11% base + 0.7pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-04-26, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 0.7pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 4.5 years of owner earnings, adding 0.7pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $1.49B + capitalized R&D $77.28M（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $2.85 / sh. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Growth value gated to zero — no moat or ROIIC ≤ WACC, so no growth value is credited.
Window TTM 2026-04-26, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 4.5 years of owner earnings → +0.7pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 9.7%–11.7%.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 0% (history declining → capped at 0) · OE FY TTM 2026-04-26, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.99%–12.75% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +0.75pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-21). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-04-26 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 23.9% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 3.7% a year.
The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.
Even when the value band is low-confidence: use this to see what the price assumes — not as a cheapness confirmation.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
3 holders · $53.3M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -1 exited
- Value$51.8MWeight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.2% ▲
- Value$1.0MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- Value$459,170Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Hormel Foods Corp (HRL) is held by 3 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $53.3M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Bill Gates, where it makes up 0.2% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Ray Dalio (0.0% of its book) and Thomas Russo (0.0% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in HRL, 1 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 1 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Hormel Foods Corp (HRL) also commonly hold →
- Caterpillar IncCAT3 holders
- Walmart IncWMT3 holders
- Mcdonald's CorpMCD3 holders
- Berkshire Hathaway Inc-Cl BBRK.B2 holders
- Deere & CoDE2 holders
- Alphabet Inc-Cl CGOOG2 holders
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Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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