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Hexcel Corp

HXLAbove valueExpectations · demanding

Held by 2 superinvestors.

Price$101.18
Holders2
Total value$42.6M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-12-31

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

Revenue growth
-0.5%
Net margin
5.8%
ROE
8.7%
FCF margin
8.3%
Revenue $1.50B → $1.89B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Above fair value

$13/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$101
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$16

Central IV

$13

Optimistic top

$16

Hexcel Corp (HXL): A conservative value band $16 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $13. Today’s price sits above that band (price $101 as of 2026-08-18).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

Revenue growth 1% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 0 yr · discount 12.9% · Zero-growth downside $16

Price as of 2026-08-18 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-17.

Method & numbers

Model cautions

  • Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $10.89 – $14.32 · Greenwald zero-growth $15.56 · zero-growth base $15.56 · reproduction $15.56

Moat Below asset base · terminal value 32% of present value · owner-earnings yield 2% vs 10Y 4.7%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$6.64 – $10.73 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 123% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).

Buffett owner-earnings value$11.45 – $13.47 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 11.3–13.3% band (9–11% base + 2.3pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 123% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 2.3pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 7.7 years of owner earnings, adding 2.3pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $1.06B + capitalized R&D $127.90M（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $15.56 / sh. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Growth value gated to zero — no moat or ROIIC ≤ WACC, so no growth value is credited.

Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 19% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 7.7 years of owner earnings → +2.3pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 11.3%–13.3%.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 1% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 11.56%–14.34% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +2.34pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-17). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about over 30.0% (outside the usual range) a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 7.0% a year.

The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

2 holders · $42.6M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited

This quarter1 added
Holders 1 → 2 · last 8q
  • Ray Dalio
    Value$23.6MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.1% ▲
  • Thomas Gayner
    Value$18.9MWeight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.1% ▲

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Hexcel Corp (HXL) is held by 2 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $42.6M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Ray Dalio, where it makes up 0.1% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Thomas Gayner (0.1% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in HXL, 1 added to existing ones, 0 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

Also held by these investors

Investors holding Hexcel Corp (HXL) also commonly hold →

HXL's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks

Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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