Incyte Corp
INCYAbove valueExpectations · demandingHeld by 4 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-03-31 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +21.2%
- Net margin
- 25.0%
- ROE
- 24.9%
- FCF margin
- —
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$49
Central IV
$47
Optimistic top
$57
Incyte Corp (INCY): A conservative value band $49–$57 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $47. Today’s price sits above that band (price $128 as of 2026-08-26).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 5% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 0 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $49
Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.
Method & numbers
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $30.65 – $57.37 · Greenwald zero-growth $55.40 · zero-growth base $55.40 · reproduction $49.08
Moat Commodity-like · terminal value 49% of present value · owner-earnings yield 3% vs 10Y 4.7%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$48.37 – $55.40 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-03-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex unavailable → degraded to the v1 simplification (maintenance capex = D&A, so the depreciation add-back nets to zero). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$29.46 – $36.01 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-03-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex or D&A unavailable → degraded to normalized net income (= average net income over the years shown). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $5.49B + capitalized R&D $4.66B（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $49.08 / sh. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Growth value gated to zero — no moat or ROIIC ≤ WACC, so no growth value is credited.
Window TTM 2026-03-31, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 5% · OE FY TTM 2026-03-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.16%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-03-31 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 24.1% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 13.5% a year.
The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.
Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 19 more years to hold up.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
4 holders · $1.50B combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited
- Value$1.36BWeight (prev→now)0.6% → 0.7% ▲
- Value$85.9MWeight (prev→now)2.4% → 2.6% ▲
- Value$36.1MWeight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.1% ▼
- Value$19.1MWeight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.1% ▲
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Incyte Corp (INCY) is held by 4 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $1.50B in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Dodge & Cox, where it makes up 0.7% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Harry Burn (2.6% of its book), Jeremy Grantham (0.1% of its book) and Ray Dalio (0.1% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in INCY, 1 added to existing ones, 3 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Incyte Corp (INCY) also commonly hold →
- Alphabet Inc-Cl AGOOGL4 holders
- Amazon.Com IncAMZN4 holders
- Te Connectivity PlcTEL4 holders
- Regeneron PharmaceuticalsREGN4 holders
- Thermo Fisher Scientific IncTMO4 holders
- Wells Fargo & CoWFC4 holders
INCY's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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