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Jefferies Financial Group In

JEFAbove value

Held by 4 superinvestors.

Price$44.80
Holders4
Total value$198.6M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

As of 2025-11-30

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-08-31 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

Revenue growth
+14.2%
Net margin
12.3%
ROE
6.4%
FCF margin
-30.7%
Revenue $3.92B → $5.55B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Above fair value

$35/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$45
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$40

Central IV

$35

Optimistic top

$41

Jefferies Financial Group In (JEF): A conservative value band $40–$41 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $35. Today’s price sits above that band (price $45 as of 2026-10-16).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

  • Capex doubled in two years, so maintenance is hard to pin down — read the band conservatively.
  • Recent earnings are below the multi-year average, so the band uses the lower run-rate.

Revenue growth 0% (history declining, capped at zero) · moat 0 yr · discount 10.8% · Zero-growth downside $40

Price as of 2026-10-16 · yahoo · DGS10 5.1% @ 2026-10-15.

Method & numbers

Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.

Model cautions

  • Capex doubled within two years: maintenance is floored then capped at D&A (OE may look optimistic); Greenwald growth value is closed — growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.
  • Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $31.10 – $38.87 · Greenwald zero-growth $41.46 · zero-growth base $41.46 · reproduction $39.86

Moat Commodity-like · terminal value 36% of present value · owner-earnings yield 8% vs 10Y 5.1%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)

Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.

Normalized NOPAT from operating margin — not applicable when operating income is not reported separately. Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge (+ cash − total debt) — not applied (lens not assessable).

Years: TTM 2026-08-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

Buffett owner-earnings value$33.92 – $41.46 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: TTM 2026-08-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $8.88B = $39.86 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Growth value gated to zero — capex doubled within two years (AI-hog); growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.

Window TTM 2026-08-31, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 0% (history declining → capped at 0) · OE FY TTM 2026-08-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.60%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-10-15). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-08-31 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about 5.0% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 1.9% a year.

The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.

Even when the value band is low-confidence: use this to see what the price assumes — not as a cheapness confirmation.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

4 holders · $198.6M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -1 exited

This quarter2 added1 exited
Holders 5 → 4 · last 8 quarters
Exited this quarter (1)
Ray Dalio

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Jefferies Financial Group In (JEF) is held by 4 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $198.6M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Steven Romick, where it makes up 1.7% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Steven Check (1.9% of its book), Warren Buffett (0.0% of its book) and Francis Chou (3.4% of its book).

In the quarter ended 2026-06-30, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in JEF, 2 added to existing ones, 0 trimmed, and 1 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

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Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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