Sirius Xm Holdings Inc
SIRIAbove valueHeld by 6 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- -1.6%
- Net margin
- 9.4%
- ROE
- 7.0%
- FCF margin
- 14.5%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$4
Central IV
$11
Optimistic top
$12
Sirius Xm Holdings Inc (SIRI): A conservative value band $4–$12 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $11. Today’s price sits above that band (price $29 as of 2026-08-26).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
- Recent earnings are below the multi-year average, so the band uses the lower run-rate.
Revenue growth 0% (history declining, capped at zero) · moat 0 yr · discount 14.6% · Zero-growth downside $4
Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.
Method & numbers
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $9.95 – $12.10 · Greenwald zero-growth $12.24 · zero-growth base $12.24 · reproduction $3.90
Moat Commodity-like · terminal value 26% of present value · owner-earnings yield 6% vs 10Y 4.7%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$0.19 – $6.26 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 73% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$10.61 – $12.24 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 13.0–15.0% band (9–11% base + 4.0pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 73% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 4.0pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 17.0 years of owner earnings, adding 4.0pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $-10.48B + capitalized R&D $622.40M（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $3.90 / sh. Reproduction value = intangible-inclusive net reproduction (tangible net assets + acquired-intangible reset proxy + capitalized R&D), ÷ diluted shares; tangible net assets alone are negative for this asset-light franchise.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Growth value gated to zero — no moat or ROIIC ≤ WACC, so no growth value is credited.
Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 14% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 17.0 years of owner earnings → +4.0pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 13.0%–15.0%.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 0% (history declining → capped at 0) · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 13.16%–16.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +4.00pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 20.1% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 0.9% a year.
The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.
Even when the value band is low-confidence: use this to see what the price assumes — not as a cheapness confirmation.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
6 holders · $3.83B combined · this quarter +0 opened / -1 exited
- Value$3.69BWeight (prev→now)1.1% → 1.2% ▲
- Value$86.5MWeight (prev→now)4.2% → 5.3% ▲
- Value$35.1MWeight (prev→now)2.1% → 2.4% ▲
- Value$12.1MWeight (prev→now)4.5% → 5.6% ▲
- Value$4.4MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- Value$2.0MWeight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.1% ▲
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Sirius Xm Holdings Inc (SIRI) is held by 6 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $3.83B in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Warren Buffett, where it makes up 1.2% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Steven Check (5.3% of its book), Wallace Weitz (2.4% of its book) and Francis Chou (5.6% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in SIRI, 2 added to existing ones, 2 trimmed, and 1 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Sirius Xm Holdings Inc (SIRI) also commonly hold →
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Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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