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Kadant Inc

KAIAbove valueExpectations · demanding

Held by 2 superinvestors.

Price$264.15
Holders2
Total value$25.5M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

As of 2026-01-03

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-07-04 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

Revenue growth
-0.1%
Net margin
9.7%
ROE
10.4%
FCF margin
14.7%
Revenue $635.0M → $1.05B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Above fair value

$112/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$264
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$70

Central IV

$112

Optimistic top

$240

Kadant Inc (KAI): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $70–$240 / sh. Today’s price sits above both (price $264 as of 2026-10-16).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

Revenue growth 5% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 20 yr · discount 11.3% · Zero-growth downside $70

Price as of 2026-10-16 · yahoo · DGS10 5.1% @ 2026-10-15.

Method & numbers

Model cautions

  • The two methods’ midpoints differ materially — growth assumptions warrant review (over 20%).

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $74.29 – $130.75 · Greenwald $131.95 – $240.47 (neutral $189.05) · zero-growth base $96.90 · reproduction $3.49

Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 20% of present value · owner-earnings yield 3% vs 10Y 5.1%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$73.49 – $96.90 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: TTM 2026-07-04, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).

Buffett owner-earnings value$70.42 – $85.29 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9.5–11.5% band (9–11% base + 0.5pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: TTM 2026-07-04, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 0.5pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 3.9 years of owner earnings, adding 0.5pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $8.12M + capitalized R&D $33.12M（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $3.49 / sh. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a wide moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 20 years (earnings intact, ROIC stable over history).

Growth value: if the moat holds for 20 yr at ROIIC ≈ 71%, $35.05–$143.58 / sh (neutral $92.15). Conservative, not a forecast.

Window TTM 2026-07-04, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 3.9 years of owner earnings → +0.5pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 9.5%–11.5%.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 5% · OE FY TTM 2026-07-04, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 10.07%–12.47% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +0.47pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-10-15). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 51%.

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-07-04 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about 16.4% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 10.4% a year.

The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.

Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 29 more years to hold up.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

2 holders · $25.5M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited

This quarter1 added1 trimmed
Holders 1 → 2 · last 8 quarters
  • Jeremy Grantham
    Value$25.0MWeight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.1% ▼
  • Ray Dalio
    Value$481,400Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Kadant Inc (KAI) is held by 2 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $25.5M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Jeremy Grantham, where it makes up 0.1% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Ray Dalio (0.0% of its book).

In the quarter ended 2026-06-30, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in KAI, 1 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

Also held by these investors

Investors holding Kadant Inc (KAI) also commonly hold →

KAI's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks

Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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