Mgic Investment Corp
MTGBelow valueExpectations · modestHeld by 2 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-12-31- Revenue growth
- +0.5%
- Net margin
- 60.8%
- ROE
- 14.3%
- FCF margin
- 70.2%
Valuation · value band
Margin of safety
Zero-growth floor
$30
Central IV
$32
Optimistic top
$37
Mgic Investment Corp (MTG): A conservative value band $30–$37 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $32. Today’s price sits below that band (price $29 as of 2026-07-20).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 0% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 10 yr · discount 10.5% · Zero-growth downside $30
Price as of 2026-07-20 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-07-20.
Method & numbers
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
Model cautions
- Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $27.54 – $37.16 · Greenwald zero-growth $36.45 · zero-growth base $36.45 · reproduction $21.90
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 38% of present value · owner-earnings yield 11% vs 10Y 4.6%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
Normalized NOPAT from operating margin — not applicable when operating income is not reported separately. Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge (+ cash − total debt) — not applied (lens not assessable).
Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
Buffett owner-earnings value$29.82 – $36.45 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 189% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied. Financial issuer (bank/insurer): net debt / owner earnings does not describe a deposit-funded balance sheet, so no leverage premium is applied here; leverage is instead handled by the reliability gate.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $5.15B = $21.90 / sh. Total book value (shareholders' equity ÷ diluted shares); intangibles not separated — goodwill/intangibles unavailable this period.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. Dual reproduction test unavailable (intangibles not separated). A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.
Growth value not assessable — Operating income is not available across the window, so ROIIC / growth value cannot be computed.
Window FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 0% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.10%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-07-20). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about -1.3% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 0.3% a year.
Below what it has already done.
Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 1 more years to hold up.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
2 holders · $9.4M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -1 exited
- Value$7.1MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
- Value$2.3MWeight (prev→now)1.2% → 1.5% ▲
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Mgic Investment Corp (MTG) is held by 2 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $9.4M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Jeremy Grantham, where it makes up 0.0% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Paul Isaac (1.5% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in MTG, 1 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 1 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-03-31. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Mgic Investment Corp (MTG) also commonly hold →
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- Weatherford International PlWFRD2 holders
MTG's price is below its conservative value band. Browse all undervalued stocks by margin of safety
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-03-31 · filed 2026-05-15
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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