Mgic Investment Corp
MTG低于价值带预期 · 温和2 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-12-31- 营收增速
- +0.5%
- 净利率
- 60.8%
- ROE
- 14.3%
- FCF 利润率
- 70.2%
估值 · 价值带
安全边际
零增长底
$30
中枢 IV
$32
乐观上沿
$37
Mgic Investment Corp（MTG）：保守价值带 $30–$37 / 股（零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿），中枢约 $32。今日价格低于这条带（价格 $29 截至 2026-07-21）。
中间是主读数；右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档，不是绝对上限。
营收增 0%（历史增长与基本面上限的较小值，受护城河封顶） · 护城河 10 年 · 折现 10.5% · 零增长下行 $30
价格截至 2026-07-21 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-07-20.
方法与数字
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
模型警示
- 所有者盈利收益率与 10 年期美债大幅背离（超过 300 个基点）。
保守内在价值带（零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF）加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $27.54 – $37.16 · Greenwald 零增长 $36.45 · 零增长基准 $36.45 · 重置 $21.90
护城河 特许经营（护城河） · 终值占现值 38% · 所有者盈利收益率 11% 对 10Y 4.6%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
Normalized NOPAT from operating margin — not applicable when operating income is not reported separately. Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge (+ cash − total debt) — not applied (lens not assessable).
年份：2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
Buffett owner-earnings value$29.82 – $36.45 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份：2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 189% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied. Financial issuer (bank/insurer): net debt / owner earnings does not describe a deposit-funded balance sheet, so no leverage premium is applied here; leverage is instead handled by the reliability gate.
重置价值 = 有形净资产 $5.15B = $21.90 / 股. Total book value (shareholders' equity ÷ diluted shares); intangibles not separated — goodwill/intangibles unavailable this period.
护城河读数：Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. Dual reproduction test unavailable (intangibles not separated). A directional reading, not a verdict.
假设一般护城河 · 竞争优势期约 10 年。
增长价值无法评估 — Operating income is not available across the window, so ROIIC / growth value cannot be computed.
窗口 FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
所有者盈利 DCF：增长 g₁ 0% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.10%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-07-20). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
价格在赌什么
现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 -1.5%；公司过去营收年增 0.3%。
低于它自己做到过的。
粗略地说，现价要它按历史营收增速再增长约 1 年，才刚好撑得起。
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
2 位持有 · 合计 $9.4M · 本季 +0 新建 / -1 清仓
- 市值$7.1M权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▼
- 市值$2.3M权重（上季→本季）1.2% → 1.5% ▲
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
Mgic Investment Corp（MTG）被 Compounder 追踪的 2 位超级投资者持有，合计申报市值 $9.4M。仓位最大的是 Jeremy Grantham，占其组合 0.0%。
按市值，其他主要持有人包括 Paul Isaac（占其组合 1.5%）。
最近一个季度，追踪范围内有 0 位新建 MTG 仓位，1 位加仓，1 位减仓，1 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报，截至 2026-03-31 季度。来源：SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓，且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天，因此这是已披露的多头持有情况，并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 Mgic Investment Corp（MTG）的这些人还共同重仓 →
MTG 现价低于保守价值带。 按安全边际浏览全部低估股
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-03-31 · 2026-05-15 提交
仅供教育与信息参考，不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报，可能滞后最多 45 天。
订阅更新
新一季 13F 异动与估值更新，发到你的邮箱。