Maxlinear Inc
MXLAbove valueHeld by 2 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
As of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-09-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +29.7%
- Net margin
- -29.2%
- ROE
- -30.2%
- FCF margin
- 1.5%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$2
Central IV
$1
Optimistic top
$2
Maxlinear Inc (MXL): A conservative value band $2 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $1. Today’s price sits above that band (price $65 as of 2026-10-22).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
- Recent earnings are below the multi-year average, so the band uses the lower run-rate.
Revenue growth 0% (history declining, capped at zero) · moat 0 yr · discount 14.2% · Zero-growth downside $2
Price as of 2026-10-22 · yahoo · DGS10 5.1% @ 2026-10-21.
Method & numbers
Buybacks over the years shown roughly only offset stock-based-compensation dilution — read them as maintaining the share count, not a net return of capital.
Model cautions
- Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $0.56 – $0.67 · Greenwald zero-growth $1.74 · zero-growth base $1.74 · reproduction $1.74
Moat Below asset base · terminal value 26% of present value · owner-earnings yield 0% vs 10Y 5.1%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)
Normalized operating earnings net of maintenance capex are non-positive over the years shown; earnings power cannot be capitalized.
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-09-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 165% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$0.60 – $0.70 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 12.4–14.4% band (9–11% base + 3.4pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-09-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 165% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 3.4pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 9.8 years of owner earnings, adding 3.4pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $170.38M = $1.74 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Growth value gated to zero — no moat or ROIIC ≤ WACC, so no growth value is credited.
Window TTM 2026-09-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 0% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 9.8 years of owner earnings → +3.4pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 12.4%–14.4%.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 0% (history declining → capped at 0) · OE FY TTM 2026-09-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 13.02%–15.39% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +3.39pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-10-21). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-09-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
How to read intrinsic valueSEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
2 holders · $1.3M combined · this quarter +2 opened / -0 exited
- Value$692,898Weight (prev→now)New · 0.0%
- Value$624,658Weight (prev→now)New · 0.0%
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Maxlinear Inc (MXL) is held by 2 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $1.3M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Lee Ainslie, where it makes up 0.0% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Ray Dalio (0.0% of its book).
In the quarter ended 2026-06-30, 2 of the tracked filers opened a new position in MXL, 0 added to existing ones, 0 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
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Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14· Yahoo Finance as of 2026-10-22· SEC 10-K + 10-Q (XBRL) as of 2026-09-30 · filed 2026-10-22·FRED 10-year Treasury (DGS10) as of 2026-10-21
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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