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Netease Inc-Adr

NTESWithin bandExpectations · demanding

Held by 3 superinvestors.

Price$126.06
Holders3
Total value$429.0M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

As of 2025-12-31
Revenue growth
+11.6%
Net margin
30.9%
ROE
21.7%
FCF margin
44.1%
Revenue $11.29B → $16.11B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

In fair-value range

$95/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$126
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$59

Central IV

$95

Optimistic top

$161

Netease Inc-Adr (NTES): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $59–$161 / sh. Today’s price sits inside both (price $126 as of 2026-10-16).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

Revenue growth 6% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 10 yr · discount 10.8% · Zero-growth downside $59

Price as of 2026-10-16 · yahoo · DGS10 5.1% @ 2026-10-15.

Method & numbers

Model cautions

  • The two methods’ midpoints differ materially — growth assumptions warrant review (over 20%).

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $62.89 – $112.49 · Greenwald $98.12 – $161.18 (neutral $131.18) · zero-growth base $72.47 · reproduction $46.74

Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 48% of present value · owner-earnings yield 5% vs 10Y 5.1%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$60.91 – $72.11 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 245% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).

Buffett owner-earnings value$59.30 – $72.47 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 245% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $22.92B + capitalized R&D $7.16B（FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021） = $46.74 / sh. Total book value (equity ÷ diluted shares) + capitalized R&D; intangibles not separated — goodwill/intangibles unavailable this period.

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. Dual reproduction test unavailable (intangibles not separated). A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.

Growth value: if the moat holds for 10 yr at ROIIC ≈ 77%, $25.65–$88.71 / sh (neutral $58.71). Conservative, not a forecast.

Window FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 17% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 6% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.60%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-10-15). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 32%.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about 11.0% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 5.8% a year.

The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

3 holders · $429.0M combined · this quarter +1 opened / -0 exited

This quarter1 opened2 added
Holders 3 → 3 · last 8 quarters

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Netease Inc-Adr (NTES) is held by 3 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $429.0M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Dodge & Cox, where it makes up 0.1% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Christopher Davis (0.3% of its book) and Sarah Ketterer (0.8% of its book).

In the quarter ended 2026-06-30, 1 of the tracked filers opened a new position in NTES, 2 added to existing ones, 0 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

Also held by these investors

Investors holding Netease Inc-Adr (NTES) also commonly hold →

NTES's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks

Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-13

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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