Onto Innovation Inc
ONTOAbove valueHeld by 3 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2026-01-03- Revenue growth
- +1.8%
- Net margin
- 0.0%
- ROE
- 0.0%
- FCF margin
- 29.8%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
$31–$34 value estimate
Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO): A conservative earnings-power estimate, $31–$34 / sh; today’s price sits above it (price $279 as of 2026-07-20).
Zero-growth downside $31
Price as of 2026-07-20 · yahoo.
Method & numbers
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
· Greenwald zero-growth $34.04 · zero-growth base $34.04 · reproduction $30.66
Moat Franchise (via earnings growth).
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$29.13 – $34.04 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 64% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).
Buffett owner-earnings value
Normalized owner earnings are non-positive over the years shown; earnings power cannot be capitalized.
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 64% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied. Net debt or owner earnings is unavailable, so no adjustment is made.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $1.16B + capitalized R&D $352.06M（FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021） = $30.66 / sh. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Growth value gated to zero — franchise via earnings-growth bypass; growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.
Window FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 10% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
3 holders · $109.2M combined · this quarter +1 opened / -0 exited
- Value$71.4MWeight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.3% ▲
- Value$28.0MWeight (prev→now)New · 0.1%
- Value$9.7MWeight (prev→now)New · 0.9%
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO) is held by 3 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $109.2M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Ray Dalio, where it makes up 0.3% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Jeremy Grantham (0.1% of its book) and Brian Bares (0.9% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 1 of the tracked filers opened a new position in ONTO, 1 added to existing ones, 0 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-03-31. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO) also commonly hold →
- Block IncXYZ3 holders
- Amphenol Corp-Cl AAPH3 holders
- Globus Medical Inc - AGMED3 holders
- Ferguson Enterprises IncFERG3 holders
- Ss Spdr S&P 500 Etf Trust-UsSPY2 holders
- Microsoft CorpMSFT2 holders
ONTO's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-03-31 · filed 2026-05-15
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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